The Instability of the Banking Sector and Macrodynamics: Theory and Empirics
AbstractThis paper studies the issue of local instability of the banking sector and how it may spillover to the macroeconomy. The banking sector is considered here as representing a wealth fund that accumulates capital assets, can heavily borrow and pays bonuses. We presume that the banking system faces not only loan losses but is also exposed to a deterioration of its balances sheets due to adverse movements in asset prices. In contrast to previous studies that use the financial accelerator – which is locally amplifying but globally stable and mean reverting – our model shows local instability and globally multiple regimes. Whereas the financial accelerator leads, in terms of econometrics, to a one-regime VAR we demonstrate the usefulness of a multi-regime VAR (MRVAR). We estimate our model for the US with a MRVAR using a constructed financial stress index and industrial production. We also undertake an impulse-response study with an MRVAR which allows us to explore regime dependent shocks. We show that the shocks have asymmetric effects depending on the regime the economy is in and the size of the shocks. As to the recently discussed unconventional monetary policy of quantitative easing we demonstrate that the effects of monetary shocks are also dependent on the size of the shocks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade in its series DEGIT Conference Papers with number c016_080.
Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-05-15 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2012-05-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2012-05-15 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009.
"Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
- Lasse Heje Pederson & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp580, Financial Markets Group.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Zadrozny, Peter A, 1993. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Responses, Step Responses, and Variance Decompositions of Estimated Linear Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 857-70, July.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009.
"Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy,"
0910-01, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Yuliy Sannikov & Markus Brunnermeier, 2012.
"A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector,"
2012 Meeting Papers
507, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "A macroeconomic model with a financial sector," Working Paper Research 236, National Bank of Belgium.
- Yuliy Sannikov & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2010. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," 2010 Meeting Papers 1114, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983.
"Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
- R. C. Merton, 1970.
"Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model,"
58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
- Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi, 2010. "Global dynamics in a model with search and matching in labor and capital markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1651-1679, September.
- Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2008. "Asset pricing with loss aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3253-3274, October.
- Grune, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "Using dynamic programming with adaptive grid scheme for optimal control problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2427-2456, December.
- Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009.
"Money, liquidity, and monetary policy,"
360, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Marco Del Negro, 2010. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed’s Non-Standard Policies," 2010 Meeting Papers 113, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997.
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Balke-Fomby threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00010, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
- Lars Grüne & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Asset pricing with dynamic programming," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 233-265, May.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009.
"Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy,"
BIS Working Papers
278, Bank for International Settlements.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Research 146, National Bank of Belgium.
- Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0809-02, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
- Semmler, Willi & Sieveking, Malte, 2000. "Critical debt and debt dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1121-1144, June.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Shrestha, Prakash Kumar, 2013. "Banking Ssystems, central banks and international reserve accumulation in East Asian economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7(14), pages 1-29.
- Shrestha, Prakash Kumar, 2012. "Banking systems, central banks and international reserve accumulation in East Asian economies," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-48, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michaela Rank).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.