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Volatility transmission across markets: a Multichain Markov Switching model

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Giampiero M. Gallo
Edoardo Otranto

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Abstract

The integration of financial markets across countries has modified the way prices react to news. Innovations originating in one market diffuse to other markets following patterns which usually stress the presence of interdependence. In some cases, though, covariances across markets have an asymmetric component which reflects the dominance of one over the others. The volatility transmission mechanisms in such events may be more complex than what can be modelled as a multivariate GARCH model. In this article, we adopt a new Markov Switching approach and we suppose that periods of high volatility and periods of low volatility represent the states of an ergodic Markov Chain where the transition probability is made dependent on the state of the 'dominant' series. We provide some theoretical background, and illustrate the model on Asian markets data showing support for the idea of dominant market and the good prediction performance of the model on a multi-period horizon.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 17 (2007)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 659-670
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:8:p:659-670

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Edoardo Otranto, 2005. "The multi-chain Markov switching model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 523-537. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dueker, Michael J, 1997. "Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
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  5. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-62, July.
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  10. Edoardo Otranto & Giampiero Gallo, 2002. "A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach To Detect The Number Of Regimes In Markov Switching Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 477-496. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Hahn Shik Lee, 2004. "International transmission of stock market movements: a wavelet analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 197-201, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Celso Brunetti & Roberto S. Mariano & Chiara Scotti & Augustine H. H. Tan, 2003. "Markov Switching Garch Models of Currency Crises in Southeast Asia," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  14. Helen Higgs & Andrew C. Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kanas, Angelos, 1998. "Volatility Spillovers across Equity Markets: European Evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 245-56, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Edoardo Otranto, 2008. "Clustering Heteroskedastic Time Series by Model-Based Procedures," Working Paper CRENoS 200801, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Marta Bevilacqua, 2009. "International crises, instability periods and contagion: the case of the ERM," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 105-122, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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