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Volatility transmission across markets: a Multichain Markov Switching model

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  • Giampiero M. Gallo
  • Edoardo Otranto

Abstract

The integration of financial markets across countries has modified the way prices react to news. Innovations originating in one market diffuse to other markets following patterns which usually stress the presence of interdependence. In some cases, though, covariances across markets have an asymmetric component which reflects the dominance of one over the others. The volatility transmission mechanisms in such events may be more complex than what can be modelled as a multivariate GARCH model. In this article, we adopt a new Markov Switching approach and we suppose that periods of high volatility and periods of low volatility represent the states of an ergodic Markov Chain where the transition probability is made dependent on the state of the 'dominant' series. We provide some theoretical background, and illustrate the model on Asian markets data showing support for the idea of dominant market and the good prediction performance of the model on a multi-period horizon.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 17 (2007)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 659-670

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:8:p:659-670

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo & Margherita Velucchi, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in East Asian Financial Markets: A Mem-Based Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 222-223, February.
  2. Giampiero M. Gallo & Margherita Velucchi, 2009. "Market interdependence and financial volatility transmission in East Asia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 24-44.
  3. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2012. "Realized Volatility and Change of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2012_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Jul 2012.
  4. Marcel Aloy & Gilles De Truchis & Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Shift-Volatility Transmission in East Asian Equity Markets," Working Papers halshs-00935364, HAL.
  5. Khalifa, Ahmed A.A. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Otranto, Edoardo, 2014. "Patterns of volatility transmissions within regime switching across GCC and global markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 512-524.
  6. R. Gargano & E. Otranto, 2013. "Financial Clustering in Presence of Dominant Markets," Working Paper CRENoS 201318, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  7. A. Maghyereh & B. Awartani, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers between Dubai financial market and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange in the UAE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 837-848, May.
  8. E. Otranto, 2008. "Clustering Heteroskedastic Time Series by Model-Based Procedures," Working Paper CRENoS 200801, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  9. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Marta Bevilacqua, 2009. "International crises, instability periods and contagion: the case of the ERM," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 105-122, June.
  10. E. Otranto, 2012. "Spillover Effects in the Volatility of Financial Markets," Working Paper CRENoS 201217, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  11. Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Dasilas, Apostolos & Papasyriopoulos, Nicholas, 2009. "Volatility and error transmission spillover effects: Evidence from three European financial regions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 858-869, August.
  12. Margherita Velucchi, 2009. "Regime switching: Italian financial markets over a century," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 67-86, March.
  13. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Shiab, Mohammad Al, 2013. "Directional spillovers from the U.S. and the Saudi market to equities in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 224-242.
  14. Vít Bubák & Evžen Kocenda & Filip Zikes, 2010. "Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 3063, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2014. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Changes of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2014_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Feb 2014.
  16. A. Khalifa & S. Hammoudeh & E. Otranto & S. Ramchander, 2012. "Volatility Transmission across Currency, Commodity and Equity Markets under Multi-Chain Regime Switching: Implications for Hedging and Portfolio Allocation," Working Paper CRENoS 201214, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  17. Gagliardini, Patrick & Gouriéroux, Christian, 2013. "Correlated risks vs contagion in stochastic transition models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2241-2269.
  18. Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gouriéroux, 2012. "Correlated Risks vs Contagion in Stochastic Transition Models," Working Papers 2012-07, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.

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