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Influences Of The Governmental Market Interventions On Wheat Markets In Serbia During The Food Crisis 2007/2008

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  • Djuric, Ivan
  • Goetz, Linde
  • Glauben, Thomas

Abstract

This paper analyzes how the market interventions of the Serbian government during the food crisis 2007/2008, inter alia a de facto export ban, have affected domestic wheat markets. Besides a comprehensive description of the crisis policy and its effects on the Serbian wheat market, we investigate how it influences the equilibrium and stability of the Serbian wheat market and its integration with the world market within a price transmission model. Applying a Markov-switching error correction model to weekly wheat grower prices in Serbia and world market prices, two states of the wheat market are identified. Our results suggest that although the long-run price elasticity did not change during the crisis, the market equilibrium was disrupted and the market stability reduced. Also, we find that the price dampening effect of the export restrictions was only short-lived, and that Serbian wheat grower prices even increased above the world market level.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland with number 114438.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114438

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Keywords: international market integration; Markov-Switching Error Correction Model; Serbia; wheat market; world market price transmission; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; C34; Q11; Q13; Q17; Q18;

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  1. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  2. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  3. Bernhard Brümmer & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Sergiy Zorya, 2009. "The impact of market and policy instability on price transmission between wheat and flour in Ukraine," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 203-230, June.
  4. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
  5. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Jolejole-Foreman, Maria Christina & Mallory, Mindy L. & Baylis, Katherine R., 2013. "Impact of Wheat and Rice Export Ban on Indian Market Integration," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150595, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Roberto ESPOSTI & Giulia LISTORTI, 2011. "Agricultural Price Transmission Across Space and Commodities During Price Bubbles," Working Papers 367, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  3. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 1, April.

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