Global commodity price peaks and governmental interventions: The case of the wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia – Did consumers really benefit?
AbstractWe analyze how the governmental market interventions, during the commodity price peaks 2007/2008 and 2010/2011, have affected the transmission of price changes along the wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia. We aim to investigate if consumers benefitted from the wheat and flour export restrictions or if other members along the supply chain were able to gain advantage. Our analysis of price dynamics between wheat and flour prices within a Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model suggests that the millers increased their margin and thus profits in the aftermath of the food crisis. The simulation of bread production costs makes evident that bakeries and even more retailers profited substantially from the crisis policy. Compared with laissez-faire policy case, the significant wheat, flour and bread price increase was dampened by the governmental market interventions only at the beginning of the crisis. Additional market interventions, mainly wheat purchases, caused significant price increase on the domestic market which pushed consumers into unfavorable position. Consumers’ expenditure for food was increasing followed by the increased governmental expenditures for market interventions. Overall market situation, characterized by ad-hoc policy interventions and uncertainty, was leading to the net welfare loss for the whole Serbian economy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA) in its series 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 with number 133023.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Model; export ban; Serbia; vertical price transmission; wheat-to-bread supply chain; Markov-Switching Fehlerkorrekturmodell; Exportverbot; Serbien; Vertikale Preistransmission; Weizen-Bot Wertschöpfungskette; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2011.
"Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2012. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 422-427.
- Martin, Will & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Export restrictions and price insulation during commodity price booms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5645, The World Bank.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2001.
"On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models,"
Open Access publications from Maastricht University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-19703, Maastricht University.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 155-160, November.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "On the reliability of chow type test for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,95, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Kim, C-J., 1991.
"Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching,"
91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
- Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Bernhard Brümmer & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Sergiy Zorya, 2009. "The impact of market and policy instability on price transmission between wheat and flour in Ukraine," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 203-230, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.