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Global commodity price peaks and governmental interventions: The case of the wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia - Who benefited and who lost?

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  • Djuric, Ivan
  • Gotz, Linde
  • Glauben, Thomas
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    Abstract

    We analyze how the governmental market interventions during the commodity price peaks 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 have affected the transmission of price changes along the wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia. We aim to investigate if consumers benefitted from the wheat and flour export restrictions, which were supplemented by governmental wheat purchases in the domestic market, or if other members along the supply chain were able to gain advantage. Our analysis of price dynamics between wheat and flour prices within a Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model suggests that the mills increased their margin and thus profits in the aftermath of the governmental interventions. The simulation of bread production costs makes evident that bakeries and even more retailers profited substantially from the crisis policy. We find that consumers benefitted from the governmental interventions only to a limited degree and experienced overall welfare losses. Compared with laissez-faire policy, the bread price increase was dampened by the governmental market interventions only at the beginning of the crisis. The additional strong bread price increase in April 2008 indirectly resulted from the governmental wheat purchases from the Serbian market.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington with number 125142.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:125142

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    Keywords: governmental interventions; Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Model; Serbia; vertical price transmission; wheat-to-bread supply chain; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis;

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    1. Meyer, Jochen & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2002. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24822, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    7. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
    8. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    9. Sam Peltzman, 2000. "Prices Rise Faster than They Fall," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 466-502, June.
    10. Bernhard Brümmer & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Sergiy Zorya, 2009. "The impact of market and policy instability on price transmission between wheat and flour in Ukraine," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 203-230, June.
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