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Modelling financial volatility in the presence of abrupt changes

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  • Ross, Gordon J.
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    Abstract

    The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive days, creating temporal clusters. The GARCH model, which treats volatility as a drift process, is commonly used to capture this behaviour. However research suggests that volatility is often better described by a structural break model, where the volatility undergoes abrupt jumps in addition to drift. Most efforts to integrate these jumps into the GARCH methodology have resulted in models which are either very computationally demanding, or which make problematic assumptions about the distribution of the instruments, often assuming that they are Gaussian. We present a new approach which uses ideas from nonparametric statistics to identify structural break points without making such distributional assumptions, and then models drift separately within each identified regime. Using our method, we investigate the volatility of several major stock indexes, and find that our approach can potentially give an improved fit compared to more commonly used techniques.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 392 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 350-360

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:2:p:350-360

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    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

    Related research

    Keywords: Volatility modeling; GARCH; Change detection; Nonparametric statistics;

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