This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

An Econometric Model of Serial Correlation and Illiquidity In Hedge Fund Returns

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Getmansky, Mila
Lo, Andrew
Makarov, Igor

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The returns to hedge funds and other alternative investments are often highly serially correlated in sharp contrast to the returns of more traditional investment vehicles such as long-only equity portfolios and mutual funds. In this paper, we explore several sources of such serial correlation and show that the most likely explanation is illiquidity exposure, i.e., investments in securities that are not actively traded and for which market prices are not always readily available. For portfolios of illiquid securities, reported returns will tend to be smoother than true economic returns, which will understate volatility and increase risk-adjusted performance measures such as the Sharpe ratio. We propose an econometric model of illiquidity exposure and develop estimators for the smoothing profile as well as a smoothing-adjusted Sharpe ratio. For a sample of 908 hedge funds drawn from the TASS database, we show that our estimated smoothing coefficients vary considerably across hedge-fund style categories and may be a useful proxy for quantifying illiquidity exposure

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/1838
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management in its series Working papers with number 4288-03.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 14 Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:1838

Contact details of provider:
Postal: MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (MIT), SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, 50 MEMORIAL DRIVE CAMBRIDGE MASSACHUSETTS 02142 USA
Phone: 617-253-2659
Web page: http://mitsloan.mit.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (MIT), SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, 50 MEMORIAL DRIVE CAMBRIDGE MASSACHUSETTS 02142 USA

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).

Related research
Keywords: Hedge Funds; Serial Correlation; Market Efficiency; Performance Smoothing; Liquidity;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989. "A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Grossman, Sanford J, 1976. "On the Efficiency of Competitive Stock Markets Where Trades Have Diverse Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 573-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann, 2001. "Hedge Funds With Style," NBER Working Papers 8173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kadlec, Gregory B & Patterson, Douglas M, 1999. "A Transactions Data Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 609-30.
  7. Atchison, Michael D & Butler, Kirt C & Simonds, Richard R, 1987. " Nonsynchronous Security Trading and Market Index Autocorrelation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 111-18, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Working Papers 89-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  9. Jobson, J D & Korkie, Bob M, 1981. "Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 889-908, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bhattacharya, Sudipto & Pfleiderer, Paul, 1985. "Delegated portfolio management," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Agarwal, Vikas & Naik, Narayan Y., 2000. "Multi-Period Performance Persistence Analysis of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 327-342, September. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
  15. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 1999. "A primer on hedge funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 309-331, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & James Park, 1998. "Hedge Funds and the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997," NBER Working Papers 6427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. William N. Goetzmann & Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2004. "High Water Marks," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm22, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • William N. Goetzmann & Jonathan Ingersoll, Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 1998. "High Water Marks," NBER Working Papers 6413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. William Goetzmann & Jonathan Ingersoll & Matthew I. Spiegel & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Sharpening Sharpe Ratios," NBER Working Papers 9116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Stephen J. Brown, 2001. "Careers and Survival: Competition and Risk in the Hedge Fund and CTA Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1869-1886, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Liang, Bing, 2000. "Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 309-326, September. [Downloadable!]
  25. Stephen Brown, 1999. "Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-077, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Jennifer N. Carpenter, 2000. "Does Option Compensation Increase Managerial Risk Appetite?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2311-2331, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Carl Ackermann & Richard McEnally & David Ravenscraft, 1999. "The Performance of Hedge Funds: Risk, Return, and Incentives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 833-874, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  29. Philip H. Dybvig & Heber K. Farnsworth & Jennifer Carpenter, 1999. "Portfolio Performance and Agency," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-046, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  30. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. William N. Goetzmann & Stephen J. Brown & Bing Liang, 2002. "Fees on Fees in Funds of Funds," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm309, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  32. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  33. Darryll Hendricks & Jayendu Patel & Richard Zeckhauser, 1997. "The J-Shape Of Performance Persistence Given Survivorship Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 161-166, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Cohen, Kalman J, et al, 1978. "The Returns Generation Process, Returns Variance, and the Effect of Thinness in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 149-67, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-41.
  37. Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990. "An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  38. ter Horst, Jenke R. & Nijman, Theo E. & Verbeek, Marno, 2001. "Eliminating look-ahead bias in evaluating persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 345-373, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  41. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Goodwin, Thomas H, 1993. "Business-Cycle Analysis with a Markov-Switching Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 331-39, July.
  43. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Baquero, G. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2005. "A Portrait of Hedge Fund Investors: Flows, Performance and Smart Money," Research Paper ERS-2005-068-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  2. Horst, J.R. ter & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2004. "Fund liquidation, self-selection and look-ahead bias in the hedge fund industry," Research Paper ERS-2004-104-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Joseph Chen & Samuel Hanson & Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2008. "Do Hedge Funds Profit From Mutual-Fund Distress?," NBER Working Papers 13786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert E. Hall & Susan E. Woodward, 2007. "The Incentives to Start New Companies: Evidence from Venture Capital," NBER Working Papers 13056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Georges Gallais-Hamonno & Huyen Nguyen-Thi-Thanh, 2007. "The necessity to correct hedge fund returns: empirical evidence and correction method," Working Papers halshs-00184470_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  6. Huyen Nguyen-Thi-Thanh & Georges Gallais-Hamonno & Thi H.V. Hoang, 2008. "Faut-il corriger les rentabilités des hedge funds?," Post-Print halshs-00106400_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ravi Jagannathan & Alexey Malakhov & Dmitry Novikov, 2006. "Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 12015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & Rene M. Stulz, 2008. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 14068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ramadorai, Tarun, 2008. "The Secondary Market for Hedge Funds and the Closed-Hedge Fund Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 6877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Shaun A. Bond & Soosung Hwang & Gianluca Marcato, 2006. "An Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Returns: Is there a Smoothing Puzzle?," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2006-17, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Stulz, Rene M., 2007. "Hedge Funds: Past, Present, and Future," Working Paper Series 2007-3, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Naes, Randi & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "Liquidity and Asset Pricing: Evidence on the Role of Investor Holding Period," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/19, University of Stavanger. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Yong Chen & Wayne Ferson & Helen Peters, 2009. "Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 15318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All RePEc services are meant to be be free forever, as they are all run by volunteers.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.