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Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds

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Author Info
Nicholas Chan
Mila Getmansky
Shane M. Haas
Andrew W. Lo

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Abstract

Systemic risk is commonly used to describe the possibility of a series of correlated defaults among financial institutions---typically banks---that occur over a short period of time, often caused by a single major event. However, since the collapse of Long Term Capital Management in 1998, it has become clear that hedge funds are also involved in systemic risk exposures. The hedge-fund industry has a symbiotic relationship with the banking sector, and many banks now operate proprietary trading units that are organized much like hedge funds. As a result, the risk exposures of the hedge-fund industry may have a material impact on the banking sector, resulting in new sources of systemic risks. In this paper, we attempt to quantify the potential impact of hedge funds on systemic risk by developing a number of new risk measures for hedge funds and applying them to individual and aggregate hedge-fund returns data. These measures include: illiquidity risk exposure, nonlinear factor models for hedge-fund and banking-sector indexes, logistic regression analysis of hedge-fund liquidation probabilities, and aggregate measures of volatility and distress based on regime-switching models. Our preliminary findings suggest that the hedge-fund industry may be heading into a challenging period of lower expected returns, and that systemic risk is currently on the rise.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11200.

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Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11200

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G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & Rene M. Stulz, 2006. "Is There Hedge Fund Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 12090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michel Aglietta & Sandra Rigot, 2008. "The regulation of hedge funds under the prism of the financial crisis," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-20, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & Rene M. Stulz, 2008. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 14068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Loriana Pelizzon & Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky, 2008. "Crisis and Hedge Fund Risk," Working Papers 2008_10, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alejandro García & Ramazan Gençay, 2007. "Managing Adverse Dependence for Portfolios of Collateral in Financial Infrastructures," Working Papers 07-25, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark Carlson & Jason Steinman, 2008. "Market conditions and hedge fund survival," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Steven N. Kaplan & Joshua Rauh, 2007. "Wall Street and Main Street: What Contributes to the Rise in the Highest Incomes?," NBER Working Papers 13270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2007. "Dynamic Risk Exposure in Hedge Funds," Working Papers 2007_17, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Antonio Diez de los Rios & René Garcia, 2006. "Assessing and Valuing the Non-Linear Structure of Hedge Fund Returns," Working Papers 06-31, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Stefan Kassberger & Rüdiger Kiesel, 2006. "A fully parametric approach to return modelling and risk management of hedge funds," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 472-491, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2006. "Phase-Locking and Switching Volatility in Hedge Funds," Working Papers 2006_54, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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