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Frontiers of Finance: Evolution and Efficient Markets

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Author Info
J. Doyne Farmer
Andrew W. Lo

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Abstract

In this review article, we explore several recent advances in the quantitative modeling of financial markets. We begin with the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and describe how this controversial idea has stimulated a number of new directions of research, some focusing on more elaborate mathematical models that are capable of rationalizing the empirical facts, others taking a completely different tack in rejecting rationality altogether. One of the most promising directions is to view financial markets from a biological perspective and, specifically, within an evolutionary framework in which markets, instruments, institutions, and investors interact and evolve dynamically according to the "law" of economic selection. Under this view, financial agents compete and adapt, but they do not necessarily do so in an optimal fashion. Evolutionary and ecological models of financial markets is truly a new frontier whose exploration has just begun.

Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 96(1999) 9991-9992.

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Paper provided by Santa Fe Institute in its series Working Papers with number 99-06-039.

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Date of creation: Jun 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wop:safiwp:99-06-039

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Keywords: Finance; efficient markets; market evolution;

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  1. Friedman, Daniel, 1991. "Evolutionary Games in Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 637-66, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
  4. J. Doyne Farmer, 1998. "Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution," Research in Economics 98-12-117e, Santa Fe Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2002. "An Adaptive Model on Asset Pricing and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies," Research Paper Series 84, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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