A Study of Neo-Austrian Economics using an Artificial Stock Market
AbstractAn agent-based artificial financial market (AFM) is used to study market efficiency and learning in the context of the Neo-Austrian economic paradigm. Efficiency is defined in terms of the 'excess' profits associated with different trading strategies, where excess for an active trading strategy is defined relative to a dynamic buy and hold benchmark. We define an Inefficiency matrix that takes into account the difference in excess profits of one trading strategy versus another ('signal') relative to the standard error of those profits ('noise') and use this statistical measure to gauge the degree of market efficiency. A one-parameter family of trading strategies is considered, the value of the parameter measuring the relative 'informational' advantage of one strategy versus another. Efficiency is then investigated in terms of the composition of the market defined in terms of the relative proportions of traders using a particular strategy and the parameter values associated with the strategies. We show that markets are more efficient when informational advantages are small (small signal) and when there are many coexisting signals. Learning is introduced by considering 'copycat' traders that learn the relative values of the different strategies in the market and copy the most successful one. We show how such learning leads to a more informationally efficient market but can also lead to a less efficient market as measured in terms of excess profits. It is also shown how the presence of exogeneous information shocks that change trader expectations increases efficiency and complicates the inference problem of copycats.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0411038.
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 17 Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 41. Presented at the EFA 2004 Maastricht Meeting
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://18.104.22.168
Neoaustrian economics; Market efficiency; Artificial financial market; Learning; Adaptation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G - Financial Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-11-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2004-11-22 (Finance)
- NEP-HPE-2004-11-22 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
- repec:att:wimass:9625 is not listed on IDEAS
- J. Doyne Farmer & Andrew W. Lo, 1999. "Frontiers of Finance: Evolution and Efficient Markets," Working Papers 99-06-039, Santa Fe Institute.
- J. Doyne Farmer, 2002.
"Market force, ecology and evolution,"
Industrial and Corporate Change,
Oxford University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
- LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
- Blake LeBaron, 1999.
"Evolution and Time Horizons in an Agent-Based Stock Market,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
1342, Society for Computational Economics.
- LeBaron, Blake, 2001. "Evolution And Time Horizons In An Agent-Based Stock Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 225-254, April.
- Harald Benink, 2001. "An Exploration of Neo-Austrian Theory Applied to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1011-1027, 06.
- Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September.
- Chen, Shu-Heng & Yeh, Chia-Hsuan, 2002. "On the emergent properties of artificial stock markets: the efficient market hypothesis and the rational expectations hypothesis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 217-239, October.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:2:p:225-54 is not listed on IDEAS
- W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996.
"Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market,"
96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.