Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Asset Pricing Model with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mikhail Anufriev
  • Giulio Bottazzi

Abstract

In this paper we study the dynamics of a simple asset pricing model describing the trading activity of heterogeneous agents in a "stylized" market. The economy in the model contains two assets: a bond with risk-less return and a dividend paying stock. The price of the stock is determined through market clearing condition. Traders are speculators described as expected utility maximizers with heterogeneous beliefs about future stock price and with heterogeneous estimation of risk. In particular, we consider traders who base their investment decision on different time horizons and we analyze the effect of these differences on the price dynamics. Under suitable parameterization, the stock no-arbitrage "fundamental" price can emerge as a stable fixed point of the model dynamics. For different parameterizations, however, the market shows cyclical or chaotic price dynamics with speculative bubbles and crashes. We find that the sole heterogeneity of agents with respect to their time horizons is not enough to guarantee the instability of the fundamental price and the emergence of non-trivial price dynamics. However, if different groups of agents are characterized by different trading behaviors, the introduction of heterogeneous investment horizons can help to decrease the stability region of the "fundamental" fixed point. The role of time horizons turns out to be different for different trade behaviors and, in general, depends on the whole ecology of agents' beliefs. We demonstrate this effect discussing a case in which the increase of fundamentalists time horizons can lead to cyclical or chaotic price behavior, while the same increase for the chartists helps to stabilize the fundamental price.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.lem.sssup.it/WPLem/files/2004-22.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2004/22.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 15 Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2004/22

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Piazza dei Martiri della Liberta, 33, 56127 Pisa
Phone: +39-50-883343
Fax: +39-50-883344
Email:
Web page: http://www.lem.sssup.it/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Heterogeneous Beliefs; Investment Horizons;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Giulio Bottazzi, 2002. "A Simple Micro-Model of Market Dynamics Part I: The "Homogenous Agents" Deterministic Limit," LEM Papers Series 2002/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May.
  4. LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
  5. Levy, Moshe & Levy, Haim & Solomon, Sorin, 1994. "A microscopic model of the stock market : Cycles, booms, and crashes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 103-111, May.
  6. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  7. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanni Dosi & Igor Rebesco, 2002. "Institutional Architectures and Behavioural Ecologies in the Dynamics of Financial Markets: a Preliminary Investigation," LEM Papers Series 2002/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  9. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  10. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
  11. Xue-Zhong (Tony) He & Carl Chiarella, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5A.2, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  12. Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. LeBaron, Blake, 2001. "Evolution And Time Horizons In An Agent-Based Stock Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 225-254, April.
  14. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1973. "Risk Aversion and the Martingale Property of Stock Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 436-46, June.
  15. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
  16. Osler, C. L., 1995. "Exchange rate dynamics and speculator horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 695-719, October.
  17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  18. Francesca Chiaromonte & Nicolas Jonard & Giovanni Dosi, 1999. "A Speculative Centralized Asset Market with Adaptive Heterogenous Agents," LEM Papers Series 1999/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  19. KIRMAN, Alan & TEYSSIÈRE, Gilles, 2002. "Bubbles and long-range dependence in asset prices volatilities," CORE Discussion Papers 2002060, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  20. Hommes, C.H., 2001. "Modeling the stylized facts in finance through simple nonlinear adaptive systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 01-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Georges Prat, 2012. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: what do the U.S. secular data say?," Working Papers 12-06, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  2. Sergiy Gerasymchuk, 2008. "Asset return and wealth dynamics with reference dependent preferences and heterogeneous beliefs," Working Papers 160, Department of Applied Mathematics, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
  3. Valentyn Panchenko & Sergiy Gerasymchuk & Oleg V. Pavlov, 2007. "Asset price dynamics with small world interactions under hetereogeneous beliefs," Working Papers 149, Department of Applied Mathematics, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
  4. Valentyn Panchenko & Sergiy Gerasymchuk & Oleg V. Pavlov, 2013. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Local Network Interactions," Discussion Papers 2013-18, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  5. Daniel Fricke & Thomas Lux, 2013. "The Effects of a Financial Transaction Tax in an Artificial Financial Market," Kiel Working Papers 1868, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Thierry Chauveau & Alexander Subbotin, 2010. "Price Dynamics in Market with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons and Boundedly Rational Traders," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00497427, HAL.
  7. Gerasymchuk, S. & Pavlov, O.V., 2010. "Asset Price Dynamics with Local Interactions under Heterogeneous Beliefs," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2004/22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.