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Speculative bubbles and fat tail phenomena in a heterogeneous agent model

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  • Taisei Kaizoji

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to propose a heterogeneous agent model of stock markets that develop complicated endogenous price fluctuations. We find occurrences of non-stationary chaos, or speculative bubble, are caused by the heterogeneity of traders' strategies. Furthermore, we show that the distributions of returns generated from the heterogeneous agent model have fat tails, a remarkable stylized fact observed in almost all financial markets.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/nlin/0312040
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number nlin/0312040.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Publication status: Published in W. Barnett, et.al., Economic Complexity, ISETE vol.14, Chapter 10 (2003) 259-275, Elsevier, Amsterdam
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:nlin/0312040

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Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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References

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  1. Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H., 2005. "A nonlinear structural model for volatility clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9706 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. J. Doyne Farmer, 1998. "Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution," Research in Economics 98-12-117e, Santa Fe Institute.
  5. Ready, Mark J, 1999. "The Specialist's Discretion: Stopped Orders and Price Improvement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1075-1112.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
  7. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
  8. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  9. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
  10. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2000. "Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  11. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
  12. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
  13. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  14. Youssefmir, Michael & Huberman, Bernardo A., 1997. "Clustered volatility in multiagent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 101-118, January.
  15. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2001. "Speculative Behaviour and Complex Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 49, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  16. P. Gopikrishnan & M. Meyer & L.A.N. Amaral & H.E. Stanley, 1998. "Inverse cubic law for the distribution of stock price variations," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 139-140, July.
  17. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
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Cited by:
  1. Taisei Kaizoji, 2003. "Intermittent chaos in a model of financial markets with heterogeneous agents," Papers nlin/0312065, arXiv.org.
  2. Ahmad Naimzada & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2006. "Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and Imitative Processes," Working Papers 104, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.

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