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Dynamic Effects of Increasing Heterogeneity in Financial Markets

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  • Ahmad Naimzada

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Milan-Bicocca)

  • Giorgio Ricchiuti

Abstract

Developing a model in which heterogeneity arises among two groups of fundamentalists that follow gurus, we focus on the dynamic effects of increasing heterogeneity. We show that an increasing degree of heterogeneity leads firstly (i) to insurgence of a pitchfork bifurcation and, secondly (ii) generates, together with a larger reaction to misalignment of both market makers and agents, the appearance of a periodic, or even, chaotic, price fluctuation (trough an homoclinic bifurcation, [1]).

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File URL: http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper111.pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 111.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision: 2007
Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:111

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Keywords: mathematical economics; chaos; heterogeneous interacting agents; financial markets;

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References

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  1. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
  2. Ferreira, Fernando F. & de Oliveira, Viviane M. & Crepaldi, Antônio F. & Campos, Paulo R.A., 2005. "Agent-based model with heterogeneous fundamental prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 357(3), pages 534-542.
  3. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2005. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Speculative Behaviour in a Dynamic Multi-Asset Framework," Research Paper Series 166, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  4. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
  5. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2001. "Speculative Behaviour and Complex Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 49, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  6. Follmer, Hans & Horst, Ulrich & Kirman, Alan, 2005. "Equilibria in financial markets with heterogeneous agents: a probabilistic perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 123-155, February.
  7. repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  9. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  10. He, Xue-Zhong & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1577-1596, September.
  11. Alan Kirman, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 89-117, May.
  12. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ahmad K Naimzada & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2013. "Complexity with Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and a Multiplicative Price Mechanism," Working Papers - Economics wp2013_03.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  2. Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
  3. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2014. "Real and financial interacting oscillators: a behavioral macro-model with animal spirits," Working Papers 268, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.

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