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Heterogeneous Expectations and Speculative Behaviour in a Dynamic Multi-Asset Framework

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Author Info
Carl Chiarella () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)
Roberto Dieci (Dipartimento di Matematica per le Scienze Economiche e Sociali, University of Bologna)
Xue-Zhong He () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)

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Abstract

Following the framework of a one risky - one riskless asset model developed by Brock and Hommes (1998), this paper considers a discrete-time model of a financial market where heterogeneous groups of agents allocate their wealth amongst multiple risky assets and a riskless asset. Agents follow different expectation formation schemes for both first and second moments of the distribution of returns. Instead of using a Walrasian auctioneer scenario as the market clearing mechanism, a market maker scenario is used. In particular, the paper focuses on the case of two risky assets and two agent types, fundamentalists and trend chasers. Conditions for the stability of the ?fundamental? equilibrium are established in terms of the key parameters, in particular the extrapolation rate of the trend chasers and the weight of the two groups in the market. Numerical explorations are performed in order to analyze the combined effect of the interaction between heterogeneous traders and the diversification among multiple risky assets. Particular attention is paid to the effect of the correlation between the risky assets. It turns out that investors? anticipated correlation and portfolio diversification do not always have a stabilizing role, but rather may act as a further source of complexity in the financial market.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 166.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:166

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Related research
Keywords: heterogeneous beliefs; asset pricing; portfolio choice; bifurcation analysis; comovements in stock prices;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  3. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & María-Dolores García-Artiles & Juan Manuel Martín-González, 2002. "A model of speculative behaviour with a strange attractor," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 143-161, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2005. "The Dynamic Interaction of Speculation and Diversification," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Volker Bohm & Carl Chiarella, 2000. "Mean Variance Preferences, Expectations Formation, and the Dynamics of Random Asset Prices," Research Paper Series 46, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. " On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bohm, Volker & Wenzelburger, Jan, 2005. "On the performance of efficient portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 721-740, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky & Michael Schröder, 2008. "Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence on the Chartist-Fundamentalist Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Tony He, 2006. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing: A Mean-Variance Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 108, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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