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Hedge Funds and the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997

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Author Info
Stephen J. Brown
William N. Goetzmann
James M. Park

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Abstract

We test the hypothesis that hedge funds were responsible for the crash in the Asian currencies in late 1997. To do so, we develop estimates of the changing positions of the largest ten currency funds in one currency, the Malaysian ringgit and to a basket of Asian currencies. Our methodology is adapted from the Sharpe's (1992) style analysis approach that decomposes fund returns. We find that the net long or short positions in the ringgit or its correlates did fluctuate dramatically over the last four years. However, these fluctuations were not associated with moves in the exchange rate. The estimated net positions of the major funds were not unusual during the crash period, nor were the profits of the funds during the crisis. In sum, we find no empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that George Soros, or any other hedge fund manager was responsible for the crisis.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- in its series New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires with number 98-014.

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Date of creation: 13 Jan 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:98-014

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Postal: U.S.A.; New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics . 44 West 4th Street. New York, New York 10012-1126
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/finance/
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  1. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
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  1. Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Igor Makarov, 2003. "An Econometric Model of Serial Correlation and Illiquidity in Hedge Fund Returns," NBER Working Papers 9571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Rajesh Chakrabarti & Richard Roll, 2000. "East Asia and Europe During the 1997 Asian Collapse: A Clinical Study of a Financial Crisis," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1070, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Holt, Bryce R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2000. "The Effects Of Futures Trading By Large Hedge Funds And Ctas On Market Volatility," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18935, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  4. J. A. Kregel, 1998. "Derivatives and Global Capital Flows: Applications to Asia," Macroeconomics 9809001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: Capital Flows and Herding Behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  6. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2005. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Working Papers 11200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  7. Azman-Saini, W.N.W., 2006. "Hedge funds, exchange rates and causality: Evidence from Thailand and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 716, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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