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Insuring Against Self-Fulfilling Financial Crises

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  • C. Y. Cyrus Chu

    (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan)

  • Jason J. H. Yeh

    (Department of Finance, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

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    Abstract

    This paper proposes an insurance scheme to protect a currency from self-fulfilling financial crises. Treating such crises as catastrophes, the recently developed catastrophe insurance bond (CAT bond) can be adapted and applied. The idea is for the insured currency area to issue bonds with an interest payment higher than market alternatives and relieve the area's debt burden (principal and interest) in case of a catastrophic crisis. There are two purposes behind such a design: first, if a crisis occurs, the area being hit can use the forfeited principal as funds to recover; second and more importantly, the bondholders will have an incentive to defend against the speculative attack causing the crisis because they will themselves want to avoid the forfeiture of their debt principal. We study two typical models with self-fulfilling expectations by Obstfeld (1996) and Krugman (1999) and analyze the resulting equilibrium with and without the CAT bond. It is shown that under some conditions, the insurance scheme can indeed help to reduce the threat of a self-fulfilling financial crisis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan in its journal International Journal of Business and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 4 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 2 (August)
    Pages: 123-139

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    Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:4:y:2005:i:2:p:123-139

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    Related research

    Keywords: Asian financial crisis; CAT bond; exchange rate;

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    1. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & James M. Park, 1998. "Hedge Funds and the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-014, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    2. Froot, Kenneth A., 2001. "The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 529-571, May.
    3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cummins, J. David & Doherty, Neil & Lo, Anita, 2002. "Can insurers pay for the "big one"? Measuring the capacity of the insurance market to respond to catastrophic losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 557-583, March.
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