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Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs

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  • Stephen Brown
  • William Goetzmann
  • James Park

Abstract

We investigate whether hedge fund and commodity trading advisor [CTA] return variance is conditional upon performance in the first half of the year. Our results are consistent with the Brown, Harlow and Starks (1994) findings for mutual fund managers. We find that good performers in the first half of the year reduce the volatility of their portfolios, but not vice-versa. The result that manager "variance strategies" depend upon relative ranking not distance from the high water mark threshold is unexpected, because CTA manager compensation is based on this absolute benchmark, rather than relative to other funds or indices. We conjecture that

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File URL: http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/publications/2433
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm83.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 1998
Date of revision: 01 Apr 2008
Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm83

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  1. Mark M. Carhart & Jennifer N. Carpenter & Anthony W. Lynch & David K. Musto, 2002. "Mutual Fund Survivorship," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1439-1463.
  2. Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan & Blake, David, 1998. "The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1pd3z1hm, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  3. Darryll Hendricks & Jayendu Patel & Richard Zeckhauser, 1997. "The J-Shape Of Performance Persistence Given Survivorship Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 161-166, May.
  4. Brown, Keith C & Harlow, W V & Starks, Laura T, 1996. " Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 85-110, March.
  5. Starks, Laura T., 1987. "Performance Incentive Fees: An Agency Theoretic Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 17-32, March.
  6. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-80.
  7. William N. Goetzmann & Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2004. "High Water Marks," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm22, Yale School of Management.
  8. Mark Grinblatt & Sheridan Titman, 1989. "Adverse Risk Incentives and the Design of Performance-Based Contracts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(7), pages 807-822, July.
  9. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Roger G. Ibbotson & Stephen A. Ross, 1997. "Rejoinder: The J-Shape Of Performance Persistence Given Survivorship Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 167-170, May.
  10. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
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Cited by:
  1. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gaurav S. Amin & Harry M. Kat, 2001. "Welcome to the Dark Side - Hedge Fund Attrition and Survivorship Bias over the period 1994-2001," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2002-02, Henley Business School, Reading University, revised Jan 2002.
  3. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
  4. Agarwal, Vikas & Boyson, Nicole M. & Naik, Narayan Y., 2007. "Hedge funds for retail investors? An examination of hedged mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 07-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  5. Arjen Siegmann & Andr´┐Ż Lucas, 2002. "Explaining Hedge Fund Investment Styles by Loss Aversion," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-046/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Franklin R. Edward, 1999. "Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 189-210, Spring.
  7. Thomas Gimbel & Francis Gupta & Dan Pines, 2004. "Entry & Exit: The Lifecyle of a Hedge Fund," Industrial Organization 0407002, EconWPA.
  8. Francisca Richter & B. Wade Brorsen, 2000. "Estimating fees for managed futures: a continuous-time model with a knockout feature," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 115-125.
  9. A. Harri & B. W. Brorsen, 2004. "Performance persistence and the source of returns for hedge funds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 131-141.
  10. Nicole Boyson & Robert Mooradian, 2011. "Corporate governance and hedge fund activism," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 169-204, July.

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