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The J-Shape Of Performance Persistence Given Survivorship Bias

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Author Info
Darryll Hendricks
Jayendu Patel
Richard Zeckhauser

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Abstract

Performance may enhance survival probability. When it does, the induced lack of randomness challenges robust and unbiased inference. If survivors are sorted into two groups based on past performance, spurious persistence has been demonstrated if variance in performance is heterogeneous. However, as we show both theoretically and with simulations, if performance is categorized finely, the spurious persistence will be J - shaped; that is, at the bottom better performance in one period "predicts" worse performance for another period. We propose a simple t - test applied to the quadratic coefficient in a regression to distinguish between a spurious J - shape and monotonic patterns. Mutual funds, our example, exhibit the monotonically increasing pattern produced by true performance persistence. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 79 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 161-166
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:79:y:1997:i:2:p:161-166

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  1. Simon Stevenson, 2004. "A performance evaluation of portfolio managers: tests of micro and macro forecasting," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 391-411, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Horst, J.R. ter & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2004. "Fund liquidation, self-selection and look-ahead bias in the hedge fund industry," Research Paper ERS-2004-104-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2005. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Working Papers 11200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stephen Brown, 1999. "Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-077, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Dai, John & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2009. "Risk Management Framework for Hedge Funds: Role of Funding and Redemption Options on Leverage," MPRA Paper 16483, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Igor Makarov, 2003. "An Econometric Model of Serial Correlation and Illiquidity in Hedge Fund Returns," NBER Working Papers 9571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Qiang Bu & Nelson Lacey, 2009. "On understanding mutual fund terminations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 80-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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