IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiucen/ef73810c-da4e-422f-b277-0b69a15b588d.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Eliminating biases in evaluating mutual fund performance from a survivorship free sample

Author

Listed:
  • Ter Horst, J.R.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Nijman, T.E.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

Poor performing mutual funds are less likely to be observed in the data sets that are typically available. This so-called survivor problem can induce a substantial bias in measures of the performance of the funds and the persistence of this performance. Many studies have recently argued that survivorship bias can be avoided by analyzing a sample that contains returns on each fund up to the period of disappearance using standard techniques. Such data sets are usually referred to as 'survivorship free'. In this paper we show that the use of standard methods of analysis on a 'survivorship free' data-set typically still suffers from a bias and we show how one can easily correct for this using weights based on probit regressions. Using a sample with quarterly returns on U.S. based equity funds, we first of all model how survival probabilities depend upon historical returns, the age of the fund and upon aggregate economy-wide shocks. Subsequently we employ a Monte Carlo study to analyze the size and shape of the survivorship bias in various performance measures that arise when a 'survivorship free database' is used with standard techniques. In particular, we show that survivorship bias induces a spurious U-shape pattern in performance persistence. Finally, we show how a weighting procedure based upon probit regressions can be used to correct for the bias. In this way, we obtain bias-corrected estimates of abnormal performance relative to a one-factor and the Carhart [1997] four-factor model, as well as its persistence. Our results are in accordance with the persistence pattern found by Carhart [1997], and do not support the existence of a hot hand phenomenon in mutual fund performance.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ter Horst, J.R. & Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1998. "Eliminating biases in evaluating mutual fund performance from a survivorship free sample," Discussion Paper 98.55, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:ef73810c-da4e-422f-b277-0b69a15b588d
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/1254664/HJRNTEVM5616949.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darryll Hendricks & Jayendu Patel & Richard Zeckhauser, 1997. "The J-Shape Of Performance Persistence Given Survivorship Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 161-166, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    2. Houdou Basse Mama & Alexander Bassen, 2017. "Neglected disciplinary effects of investor relations: evidence from corporate cash holdings," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 87(2), pages 221-261, February.
    3. Qiang Bu & Nelson Lacey, 2009. "On understanding mutual fund terminations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(1), pages 80-99, January.
    4. ter Horst, Jenke R. & Nijman, Theo E. & Verbeek, Marno, 2001. "Eliminating look-ahead bias in evaluating persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 345-373, September.
    5. Darolles, Serge & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simon, Guillaume, 2010. "Nonparametric Analysis of Hedge Funds Lifetimes," IDEI Working Papers 620, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    6. Michael K. Fung, 2006. "R&D, knowledge spillovers and stock volatility," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(1), pages 107-124, March.
    7. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & James Park, 1998. "Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm83, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
    8. Boldron, François & Fève, Frédérique & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Panet-Amaro, C. & Valognes, C., 2010. "Econometric Models and the Evolution of Post-Offices Network," IDEI Working Papers 626, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    9. Dai, John & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2009. "Risk Management Framework for Hedge Funds: Role of Funding and Redemption Options on Leverage," MPRA Paper 16483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Huij, Joop & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Cross-sectional learning and short-run persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 973-997, March.
    11. Zhao, Xinge, 2004. "Why are some mutual funds closed to new investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1867-1887, August.
    12. Jenke Ter Horst & Marno Verbeek, 2007. "Fund Liquidation, Self-selection, and Look-ahead Bias in the Hedge Fund Industry," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 605-632.
    13. Philpot, James & Hearth, Douglas & Rimbey, James, 2000. "Performance persistence and management skill in nonconventional bond mutual funds," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 247-258, 00.
    14. Astrachan, Joseph H., 2010. "Strategy in family business: Toward a multidimensional research agenda," Journal of Family Business Strategy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 6-14, March.
    15. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Collinet, Lance & Firer, Colin, 2003. "Characterising persistence of performance amongst South African general equity unit trusts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 523-538, December.
    17. Hung-Cheng Lai & Kuan-Min Wang, 2016. "Does Survivorship Bias of Mutual Funds Differ Between Liquidations and Mergers?," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 2(4), pages 299-314.
    18. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December.
    19. Ter Horst, J.R. & Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1998. "Eliminating biases in evaluating mutual fund performance from a survivorship free sample," Other publications TiSEM ef73810c-da4e-422f-b277-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 2004. "The Bank Bias: Segmentation of French Fund Families," Working papers 107, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    performance evaluation; investment trusts;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:ef73810c-da4e-422f-b277-0b69a15b588d. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://center.uvt.nl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.