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What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns? (Revision of 18-91) (Reprint 030)

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Author Info
Joseph Gyourko
Donald B. Keim

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the risks and returns of different types of real estate-related firms traded on the New York and American stock exchanges (NYSE and AMEX). We examine the relation between real estate stock portfolio returns and returns on a standard appraisal-based index, and find that lagged values of traded real estate portfolio returns can predict returns on the appraisal-based index after controlling for persistence in the appraisal series. The stock market reflects information about real estate markets that is later imbedded in infrequent property appraisals. Additional analysis suggests that the differences in the return and risk characteristics across different types of traded real estate firms can be explained in part by appealing to real estate market fundamentals relating to the degree of dependence of the real estate firm upon rental cash flows from existing buildings. These findings highlight the heterogeneity of securitized real estate-related firms.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research in its series Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers with number 11-92.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:11-92

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  1. John Knight & Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "Diversification When It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-16, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ling T. He, & James. R. Webb & Neil Myer, 2003. "Interest Rate Sensitivities of REIT Returns," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21. [Downloadable!]
  3. Piet M.A. Eichholtz, 1996. "The Stability of the Covariances of International Property Share Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(2), pages 149-158. [Downloadable!]
  4. Raimond Maurer & Steffen Sebastian & Thomas G. Stephan, 2002. "Immobilienindizes im Portfolio-Management," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 52, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jose A. Lopez, 2005. "Empirical analysis of the average asset correlation for real estate investment trusts," Working Paper Series 2005-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346. [Downloadable!]
  7. Janet K. Tandy & Leon Shilton, 1999. "Risk Assessment Steeplechase: Hurdles to Becoming a Target Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(2), pages 127-150. [Downloadable!]
  8. William G. Hardin, III & Marvin L. Wolverton, 1999. "Equity REIT Property Acquisitions: Do Apartment REITs Pay a Premium?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 113-126. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jim Clayton, 1996. "Market Fundamentals, Risk and the Canadian Property Cycle: Implications for Property Valuation and Investment Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 347-368. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michael J. Seiler & Arjun Chatrath & James R. Webb, 2001. "Real Asset Ownership and the Risk and Return to Stockholders," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 22(1/2), pages 199-212. [Downloadable!]
  11. Liow Kim Hiang, 2001. "Real estate and corporate valuation: an asset pricing perspective," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 355-368. [Downloadable!]
  12. Elias Oikarinen, 2006. "Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data," Discussion Papers 1004, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  13. Conlin Lizieri & Steven Satchell & Elaine Worzala & Roberto Dacco', 1998. "Real Interest Regimes and Real Estate Performance: A Comparison of UK and US Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 339-356. [Downloadable!]
  14. Patrick J. Wilson & John Okunev, 1999. "Long-Term Dependencies and Long Run non-Periodic Co-Cycles: Real Estate and Stock Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 257-278. [Downloadable!]
  15. Joseph Gyourko, 2009. "Understanding Commercial Real Estate: Just How Different from Housing Is It?," NBER Working Papers 14708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Glenn R. Mueller & Keith R. Pauley, 1995. "The Effect of Interest-Rate Movements on Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(3), pages 319-326. [Downloadable!]
  17. Kevin Chiang, 2009. "Discovering REIT Price Discovery: A New Data Setting," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 74-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Peter Oppenheimer & Terry V. Grissom, 1998. "Frequency Space Correlation Between REITs and Capital Market Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 291-310. [Downloadable!]
  19. Richard J. Barkham & Charles W. R. Ward, 1999. "Investor Sentiment and Noise Traders: Discount to Net Asset Value in Listed Property Companies in the U.K," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 291-312. [Downloadable!]
  20. Giacomo Morri & Pat McAllister & Charles Ward, 2005. "Explaining Deviations From NAV In UK Property Companies: Rationality And Sentimentality," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-20, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
  21. G. Donald Jud & John D. Benjamin & G. Stacy Sirmans, 1996. "What Do We Know about Apartments and Their Markets?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(3), pages 243-258. [Downloadable!]
  22. Darcey D. Terris & F.C. Neil Myer, 1995. "The Predictability of REIT Returns and Market Segmentatio," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(4), pages 483-494. [Downloadable!]
  23. F.C. Neil Myer & James R. Webb, 1994. "Retail Stocks, Retail REITs, and Retail Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(1), pages 65-84. [Downloadable!]
  24. Edward Nelling & Joseph Gyourko, 1998. "The Predictability of Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 251-268. [Downloadable!]
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