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Demand for Money: A Study in Testing Time Series for Long Memory and Nonlinearity

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  • Derek Bond

    (University of Ulster)

  • Michael J. Harrison

    (Trinity College Dublin)

  • Edward J. O'Brien

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper draws attention to the limitations of the standard unit root/cointegration approach to economic and financial modelling, and to some of the alternatives based on the idea of fractional integration, long memory models, and the random field regression approach to nonlinearity. Following brief explanations of fractional integration and random field regression, and the methods of applying them, selected techniques are applied to a demand for money dataset. Comparisons of the results from this illustrative case study are presented, and conclusions are drawn that should aid practitioners in applied time-series econometrics.

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File URL: http://www.esr.ie/Vol38_1/bond.pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Economic and Social Studies in its journal Economic and Social Review.

Volume (Year): 38 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-24

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Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:38:y:2007:i:1:p:1-24

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  1. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "Testing of Fractional Cointegration in Macroeconomic Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 517-529, 09.
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  3. Juan J. Dolado & Jesus Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2005. "What is What? A Simple Time-Domain Test of Long-memory vs. Structural Breaks," Working Papers 258, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
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  5. Juan J. Dolado & Jesús Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components," Economics Working Papers 957, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  6. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2000. "Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0561, Econometric Society.
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  8. D. Bond & M.J. Harrision & E.J. O, Brien, 2005. "Investigating Nonlinearity: A Note on the Estimation of Hamilton’s Random Field Regression Model," Trinity Economics Papers 200054, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  9. Walter Kramer & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2002. "Testing for Structural Changes in the Presence of Long Memory," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(3), pages 235-242, December.
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  16. Shi-Miin Liu & Chih-Hsien Chou, 2003. "Parities and Spread Trading in Gold and Silver Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 899-911.
  17. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
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  20. In Choi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2004. "Testing linearity in cointegrating smooth transition regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 341-365, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & O'Connell, Brian & O'Toole, Conor, 2013. "How do banking crises affect aggregate consumption? Evidence from international crisis episodes," Papers WP464, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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