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Structural change in the forward discount: Implications for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis

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  • Sakoulis, Georgios
  • Zivot, Eric
  • Choi, Kyongwook

Abstract

It is a well-accepted empirical result that forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests using the "differences regression" of the change in the logarithm of the spot exchange rate on the forward discount. We model the forward discount as an AR(1) process and argue that its persistence is exaggerated due to the presence of structural breaks. We show using a stochastic multiple break model that the forward discount persistence is substantially less if one allows for multiple structural breaks in the mean of the process. We argue that these breaks could be identified as monetary shocks to the central bank's reaction function. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that if we do not account for structural breaks that are present in the forward discount process, the forward discount coefficient in the "differences regression" is severely biased downward, away from its true value of 1.

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  • Sakoulis, Georgios & Zivot, Eric & Choi, Kyongwook, 2010. "Structural change in the forward discount: Implications for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 957-966, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:5:p:957-966
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Jetter & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2013. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10729, Universidad EAFIT.
    2. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2014. "Time variation in the standard forward premium regression: Some new models and tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 52-63.
    3. Michael Jetter & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & Olena Ogrokhina, 2019. "Can policy shifts explain the forward discount puzzle?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1891-1909, December.
    4. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "Long-Run Implications of the Covered Interest Rate Parity Condition: Evidence during the Recent Crisis and Non-Crisis Periods," MPRA Paper 41566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Xiao-Ming Li, 2014. "Rethinking Long Memory and Structural Breaks in the Forward Premium," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 455-485, September.
    6. Cho, Dooyeon, 2018. "On the persistence of the forward premium in the joint presence of nonlinearity, asymmetry, and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 310-319.
    7. Richard T., Baillie, 2011. "Possible solutions to the forward bias paradox," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 617-622, October.
    8. Aidil Rizal SHAHRIN, 2015. "Has Nonlinearity Resolved The A Nomaly Of Unit Root Behaviour In Forward Discount ? New Empirical Evidence," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 70-80, March.
    9. Nagayasu, Jun, 2011. "The threshold nonstationary panel data approach to forward premiums," MPRA Paper 34265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sebastian Gomez-Barrero & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Central Bank Strategic Forecasting," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 802-810, October.
    11. Baillie, Richard T. & Kim, Kun Ho, 2015. "Was it risk? Or was it fundamentals? Explaining excess currency returns with kernel smoothed regressions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 99-111.
    12. Yi-Chi Chen & Wei-Choun Yu, 2011. "Structural change in the forward discount: a Bayesian analysis of forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1807-1826.
    13. Cho, Dooyeon & Chun, Sungju, 2019. "Can structural changes in the persistence of the forward premium explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 225-235.
    14. Hall Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev Amangeldi & Swamy P. A. V. B. & Tavlas George S., 2013. "The forward rate premium puzzle: a case of misspecification?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 265-279, May.
    15. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Khediri, Karim Ben & Mrabet, Zouhair, 2019. "The forward premium anomaly in the energy futures markets: A time-varying approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 600-615.
    16. Amit K. Sinha & Philip A. Horvath & Robert C. Scott, 2017. "The real miss-specification in the forward rate premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(3), pages 463-473, July.

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