Nonlinearity as an Explanation of the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly

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Nonlinearity as an Explanation of the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly

Author Info

Derek Bond (University of Ulster)
Niall Hession (University of Ulster)
Michael J Harrison (University College Dublin)
Edward J O’Brien (European Central Bank)

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Abstract

This paper shows that nonlinearity can provide an explanation for the forward exchange rate anomaly (Fama, 1984). Using sterling-Canadian dollar data, and modelling nonlinearity of unspecified form by means of a random field, we find strong evidence of time-wise nonlinearity and, significantly, obtain parameter estimates that conform with theory to a high degree of precision: the anomaly disappears.

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Paper provided by School Of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200801.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: 30 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200801

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-08-21 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2008-08-21 (Central Banking)
NEP-IFN-2008-08-21 (International Finance)

References listed on IDEAS
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Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Empirical evidence of the spot and the forward exchange rates in Canada," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 405-409, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hamilton, James D, 2001. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-73, May.
Other versions:
- James Hamilton, 1999. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1999-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
- James D. Hamilton, 1999. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-34, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!]
Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
repec:bep:sndecm:9:2005:3:1230-1230 is not listed on IDEAS
Crowder, William J., 1995. "Covered interest parity and international capital market efficiency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-132. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708. [Downloadable!]

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