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Asymmetric effects of the business cycle on bank credit risk

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  • Marcucci, Juri
  • Quagliariello, Mario

Abstract

Prior empirical research on the relation between credit risk and the business cycle has failed to properly investigate the presence of asymmetric effects. To fill this gap, we examine this relation both at the aggregate and the bank level exploiting a unique dataset on Italian banks' borrowers' default rates. We employ threshold regression models that allow to endogenously establish different regimes identified by the thresholds over/below which credit risk is more/less cyclical. We find that not only are the effects of the business cycle on credit risk more pronounced during downturns but cyclicality is also higher for those banks with riskier portfolios.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 1624-1635

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:9:p:1624-1635

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: Credit risk Panel threshold regression models Regime-switching Default rate Business cycle Cyclicality Basel 2;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, 2008. "Credit risk and business cycle over different regimes," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 670, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne, Alistair, 2008. "The cyclical behaviour of European bank capital buffers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1440-1451, August.
  3. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
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  5. Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Stability of ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 133, Bank of England.
  6. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2006. "Discrete versus continuous state switching models for portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 23-35, January.
  7. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 377, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  9. Yeager, Timothy J., 2004. "The demise of community banks? Local economic shocks are not to blame," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2135-2153, September.
  10. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  11. Altissimo, F. & Marchetti, D.J. & Oneto, G.P., 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Papers 377, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  12. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  13. Armando Méndez Morales & Jose Giancarlo Gasha, 2004. "Identifying Threshold Effects in Credit Risk Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 04/150, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
  15. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
  16. Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, . "Is Bank Portfolio Riskiness Procyclical? Evidence from Italy using a Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 05/09, Department of Economics, University of York.
  17. Michele Gambera, 2000. "Simple forecasts of bank loan quality in the business cycle," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr.
  18. repec:fth:bfdipa:6/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Andrew P. Meyer & Timothy J. Yeager, 2001. "Are small rural banks vulnerable to local economic downturns?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 25-38.
  20. Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Akhigbe, Aigbe & Madura, Jeff & Marciniak, Marek, 2012. "Bank capital and exposure to the financial crisis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 377-392.
  2. Lee, Shih-Cheng & Lin, Chien-Ting & Yang, Chih-Kai, 2011. "The asymmetric behavior and procyclical impact of asset correlations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2559-2568, October.
  3. Jokivuolle, Esa & Pesola, Jarmo & Viren, Matti, 2013. "What drives loan losses in Europe?," Research Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland.
  4. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Ioannis Daniilidis, 2011. "Procyclicality in the banking industry: causes, consequences and response," Working Papers 139, Bank of Greece.
  5. Van Tassel, Eric, 2011. "Information disclosure in credit markets when banks' costs are endogenous," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 490-497, February.
  6. Grigori Fainstein & Igor Novikov, 2011. "The role of macroeconomic determinants in credit risk measurement in transition country: Estonian example," International Journal of Transitions and Innovation Systems, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(2), pages 117-137.
  7. Daniel C. Hardy & Christian Schmieder, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 13/232, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2010. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1839-1848, August.
  9. Aisyah Rahman, 2010. "Financing structure and insolvency risk exposure of Islamic banks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 419-440, December.
  10. Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
  11. Bolt, Wilko & de Haan, Leo & Hoeberichts, Marco & van Oordt, Maarten R.C. & Swank, Job, 2012. "Bank profitability during recessions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2552-2564.
  12. Dana Kise¾áková & Alexander Kise¾ák, 2013. "ANALYSIS OF BANKING BUSINESS AND ITS IMPACT ON FINANCIAL STABILITY OF ECONOMIES IN EURO AREA The main objective of this article is to investigate banking business and analyze factors affecting financi," Polish Journal of Management Studies, Czestochowa Technical University, Department of Management, vol. 8(1), pages 121-131, December.
  13. Pesola, Jarmo, 2011. "Joint effect of financial fragility and macroeconomic shocks on bank loan losses: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3134-3144, November.
  14. Sommervoll, Dag Einar & Borgersen, Trond-Arne & Wennemo, Tom, 2010. "Endogenous housing market cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 557-567, March.
  15. Akhtar, Shumi & Faff, Robert & Oliver, Barry & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "The power of bad: The negativity bias in Australian consumer sentiment announcements on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1239-1249, May.
  16. Antão, Paula & Lacerda, Ana, 2011. "Capital requirements under the credit risk-based framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1380-1390, June.
  17. Costello, Greg & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2011. "House prices, non-fundamental components and interstate spillovers: The Australian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 653-669, March.
  18. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis & Ioannis, Daniilidis & Manthos, Delis, 2013. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," MPRA Paper 50830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 533-545, March.
  20. Chong, Beng Soon, 2010. "Interest rate deregulation: Monetary policy efficacy and rate rigidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1299-1307, June.
  21. Grigori Fainstein & Igor Novikov, 2011. "The Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Determinants In the Banking Sector of the Baltic States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 20-45, June.
  22. Behr, Patrick & Guettler, Andre & Miebs, Felix, 2013. "On portfolio optimization: Imposing the right constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1232-1242.

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