Credit risk and business cycle over different regimes
AbstractIn the recent banking literature on the relationship between credit risk and the business cycle, the presence of asymmetric effects both across credit risk regimes and through the business cycle has been generally neglected. Employing threshold regression models both at the aggregate and the bank level and exploiting a unique dataset on Italian bank borrowersÂ’ default rates, this paper analyzes whether this relationship is characterized by regime switches and thus by asymmetries, determining the thresholds endogenously. Our results show that not only are the effects of the business cycle on credit risk more pronounced during downturns but also when credit risk conditions are poor.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 670.
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Credit Risk; Panel Threshold Regression Models; Regime Switching; Default Rate; Business Cycle; Cyclicality; Basel 2;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-07-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2008-07-30 (Banking)
- NEP-BEC-2008-07-30 (Business Economics)
- NEP-REG-2008-07-30 (Regulation)
- NEP-RMG-2008-07-30 (Risk Management)
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