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Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks

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  • Anastasiou, Dimitrios

Abstract

The objective of this research is to empirically examine if both credit and business cycle affect the ex-post credit risk (i.e. non-performing loans) in the banking system of Italy for the period 1995Q1–2014Q1. The increase in NPLs post-2008 has put into question the robustness of many European banks and the stability of the whole sector. It still remains a serious challenge, especially in Italy which is one of the countries that hit by the financial crisis. By employing fixed and random effects and a dynamic GMM estimation as econometric methodologies I find results that underline common causes for NPLs. Higher NPLs in Italy are mostly due to worse macroeconomic conditions (i.e. bad phase of business cycle) and due to excess credit. Through a Granger causality test, my arguments found even more support. Such findings can be helpful when designing macro-prudential as well as NPL resolution policies.

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  • Anastasiou, Dimitrios, 2017. "Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 242-248.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:242-248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.051
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    Cited by:

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    3. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Zacharias Bragoudakis & Ioannis Malandrakis, 2019. "Non-performing loans, governance indicators and systemic liquidity risk: evidence from Greece," Working Papers 260, Bank of Greece.
    4. Rim Boussaada & Aymen Ammari & Nouha Ben Arfa, 2018. "Board characteristics and MENA banks' credit risk: A fuzzy-set analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2284-2303.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-performing loans; Ex-post credit risk; Business cycle; Credit cycle; GMM estimation; Italian Banks; Macro-prudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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