Macroeconomic determinants of bad loans: evidence from Italian banks
AbstractIn this paper we use a single-equation time series approach to examine the macroeconomic determinants of banks’ loan quality in Italy in the past twenty years, as measured by the ratio of new bad loans to the outstanding amount of loans in the previous period. We analyse the quality of loans to households and firms separately on the grounds that macroeconomic variables may affect these two classes of borrowers differently. According to our estimated models: i) the quality of lending to households and firms can be explained by a small number of macroeconomic variables mainly relating to the general state of the economy, the cost of borrowing and the burden of debt; ii) changes in macroeconomic conditions generally affect loan quality with a lag; and iii) the out-of-sample prediction accuracy of the models is quite satisfactory and proved to be robust to the recent financial crisis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) with number 89.
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
bad loans; macroeconomic determinants; Italian banking system;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-04-16 (Banking)
- NEP-CFN-2011-04-16 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-16 (Macroeconomics)
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- Ahlem Selma Messai & Fathi Jouini, 2013. "Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-performing Loan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 852 - 860.
- Inessa Love & Rima Turk Ariss, 2013. "Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality," Working Papers 201310, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Ugo Albertazzi & Tiziano Ropele & Gabriele Sene & Federico M. Signoretti, 2012. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 133, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Stefano Di Colli & Juan Sergio Lopez, 2013. "Bank Lending Procyclicality and Credit Quality during Financial Crises," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1309, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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