IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v74y2021ics0301420721003470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Natural resources commodity prices volatility and economic performance: Evidence from China pre and post COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Qiang
  • Zhang, Mei
  • Ali, Sher
  • Kirikkaleli, Dervis
  • Khan, Zeeshan

Abstract

Volatility in the prices of natural resources particularly in the Covid-19 period is the subject of major concern in recent times. Although many studies have empirically investigated the influence of oil prices on economic growth and Covid-19 on oil prices. However, the current study contributes to the literature by investigating the causal linkage of natural resources commodity prices and economic growth in the pre and post Covid-19 period for China over the period from January 01, 2019, to April 01, 2021. This study employed the wavelet power spectrum, and the wavelet coherence approaches, and the frequency domain causality test, which is known for the causal identification in the long-run, medium-run, and short-run. The empirical findings reveal that the natural resource commodity prices are more vulnerable than the economic performance particularly in the Covid-19 peak period in China. However, the wavelet coherence approach demonstrates that a bidirectional causal association exists between natural resources commodity prices and economic performance at different frequencies and time periods. Additionally, the frequency domain causality test confirms that the natural resource commodity prices volatility significantly causes economic performance only in the medium-run. Based on the empirical findings, this study recommends that innovative technological and precautionary measures must be taken to accommodate or overcome natural disasters in the future, and tackle natural resources commodity prices volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Qiang & Zhang, Mei & Ali, Sher & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Khan, Zeeshan, 2021. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility and economic performance: Evidence from China pre and post COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:74:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721003470
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420721003470
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102338?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Sugra Humbatova & Vugar Muradov, 2020. "Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-16, June.
    2. El Anshasy, Amany A. & Bradley, Michael D., 2012. "Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 605-620.
    3. Cevik, Nuket Kirci & Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel, 2020. "Oil prices, stock market returns and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 597-614.
    4. Syed Abdul Rehman Khan & Arshian Sharif & Hêriş Golpîra & Anil Kumar, 2019. "A green ideology in Asian emerging economies: From environmental policy and sustainable development," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 1063-1075, November.
    5. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    7. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan & Poon, Wai Ching & Westerlund, Joakim, 2014. "Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 137-146.
    9. Maksim Vasiev & Kexin Bi & Artem Denisov & Vladimir Bocharnikov, 2020. "How COVID-19 Pandemics Influences Chinese Economic Sustainability," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 7-22.
    10. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Barkat, Karim, 2020. "Short- and long-run asymmetric effect of oil prices and oil and gas revenues on the real GDP and economic diversification in oil-dependent economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Jun Yan & Lianyong Feng & Artem Denisov & Alina Steblyanskaya & Jan-Pieter Oosterom, 2020. "Complexity theory for the modern Chinese economy from an information entropy perspective: Modeling of economic efficiency and growth potential," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, January.
    12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    13. Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman & Yu, Zhang & Sharif, Arshian, 2021. "No Silver Bullet for De-carbonization: Preparing for Tomorrow, Today," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    15. Salih Katırcıoglu & Nesrin Ozatac & Nigar Taspınar, 2020. "The role of oil prices, growth and inflation in bank profitability," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7-8), pages 565-584, June.
    16. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2017. "Time-frequency contained co-movement of crude oil and world food prices: A wavelet-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 230-239.
    17. van Eyden, Reneé & Difeto, Mamothoana & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Oil price volatility and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies using more than a century’s data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 612-621.
    18. Chaker Aloui & Besma Hkiri & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2018. "A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Oil Price, Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 935-956, March.
    19. Claude Henry, 1974. "Investment decisions under uncertainty: The "irreversibility effect"," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/327343, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
    21. Dervis Kirikkaleli, 2020. "Does political risk matter for economic and financial risks in Venezuela?," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    22. Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Xiuwen & Wang, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Multi-scale interactions between economic policy uncertainty and oil prices in time-frequency domains," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    23. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2011. "Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 236-248, March.
    24. Plourde, André & Watkins, G. C., 1998. "Crude oil prices between 1985 and 1994: how volatile in relation to other commodities?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 245-262, September.
    25. Mehrara, Mohsen & Oskoui, Kamran Niki, 2007. "The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 365-379, May.
    26. Wachtmeister, Henrik & Henke, Petter & Höök, Mikael, 2018. "Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 138-153.
    27. Balashova, Svetlana & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Oil prices shocks and the Russian economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    28. K.P. Prabheesh & Nisful Laila, 2020. "Asymmetric Effect Of Crude Oil And Palm Oil Prices On Economic Growth: Evidence From Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 23(2), pages 253-268, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Li & Wang, Yang, 2021. "Global economic performance and natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from pre and post COVID-19 era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Arif, Asma & Minh Vu, Hieu & Cong, Ma & Hon Wei, Leow & Islam, Md. Monirul & Niedbała, Gniewko, 2022. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility and economic performance: Evaluating the role of green finance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Adeosun, Opeoluwa Adeniyi & Tabash, Mosab I. & Anagreh, Suhaib, 2022. "Oil price and economic performance: Additional evidence from advanced economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. van Eyden, Reneé & Difeto, Mamothoana & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Oil price volatility and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies using more than a century’s data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 612-621.
    5. Zhang, Feng & Huang, Yongming & Nan, Xiaoli, 2022. "The price volatility of natural resource commodity and global economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from US economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Mamothoana Difeto & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth: Evidence from Advanced OECD Countries using over One Century of Data," Working Papers 201813, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Cui, Lianbiao & Weng, Shimei & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Bashir, Muhammad Adnan & Rjoub, Husam & Zhou, Yuanxiang, 2021. "Exploring the role of natural resources, natural gas and oil production for economic growth of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Faisal, Faisal & Rahman, Sami Ur & Chander, Rajnesh & Ali, Adnan & Ramakrishnan, Suresh & Ozatac, Nesrin & Ullah, Mr Noor & Tursoy, Turgut, 2021. "Investigating the nexus between GDP, oil prices, FDI, and tourism for emerging economy: Empirical evidence from the novel fourier ARDL and hidden cointegration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Athari, Seyed Alireza, 2021. "Time-frequency dependencies of financial and economic risks in South American countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 170-181.
    10. Bakhsh, Satar & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "How does natural resource price volatility affect economic performance? A threshold effect of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-441 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jinghua Wang & Geoffrey Ngene, 2018. "Symmetric and asymmetric nonlinear causalities between oil prices and the U.S. economic sectors," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 199-218, July.
    13. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    14. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
    15. Marei Elbadri & Eralp Bektaş, 2022. "Dynamic relationship among the bank stability, oil, and gold prices: Evidence from the Islamic banks operating in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2153-2168, April.
    16. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
    17. Liu, Haiying & Saleem, Muhammad Mansoor & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh & Khan, Irfan & Zafar, Muhammad Wasif, 2022. "Impact of governance and globalization on natural resources volatility: The role of financial development in the Middle East North Africa countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul, 2011. "Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8062-8069.
    19. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    20. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Basil Awartani & Osama D. Sweidan, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and real output growth: new evidence from selected oil-importing countries in the Middle East," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1601-1621, May.
    21. Wei, Yanfeng & Guo, Xiaoying, 2016. "An empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the Chinese macro-economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 88-100.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:74:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721003470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.