IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hig/fsight/v14y2020i2p7-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How COVID-19 Pandemics Influences Chinese Economic Sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Maksim Vasiev

    (Harbin Engineering University (China))

  • Kexin Bi

    (Harbin Engineering University (China))

  • Artem Denisov

    (Kostroma State University (Russia))

  • Vladimir Bocharnikov

    (Pacific Geographical Institute, Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Science (Russia))

Abstract

China was the first country to face the COVID-19 outbreak. Owing to the prompt and decisive actions of the authorities, and the consolidation of society, the country has overcome the peak of incidence, and economic activity is gradually recovering. The paper shows how COVID-19 affects the key industries and simulates the impact on supply and transportation channel work. Using the input-output spatial data, migration index indicators, and pandemic spread statistics, we simulate different scenarios for changes in China provinces’ production and consumption under the post-coronavirus epidemic situation. Calculations were made for 31 provinces and 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. We got a model that coronavirus outbreak disaster influences on carbon dioxide emission, level of hazardous wastes and Energy-Resource Efficiency Rating. Basing on financial and migration flows between China provinces, we chose the most effective after-coronavirus outbreak model. Our main recommendation is that one needn’t to carry out any segregation of consumers. It is necessary to distribute the damage as evenly as possible between all provinces equally. We believe that such an approach will allow the Chinese economy to suffer the least damage and recover faster. Finally, we analyze the development of the post-epidemic financial flows from China to Russia, with the horizon until 2025. In all scenarios, the temporary decline of the bi-directional is expected. The results of the study may be useful for other countries in developing policies to overcome the post-epidemic crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Maksim Vasiev & Kexin Bi & Artem Denisov & Vladimir Bocharnikov, 2020. "How COVID-19 Pandemics Influences Chinese Economic Sustainability," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 7-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:14:y:2020:i:2:p:7-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2020/06/18/1550695564/1-China-Covid-7-22.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Dutta, Arindam, 2008. "On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4466, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alina Steblyanskaya & Zhen Wang & Alexander Martynov & Ai Mingye & Vladimir Artykhov & Ziming Wang & Vladimir Bocharnikov & Alena Kiselik, 2021. "New Energy-Resource Efficiency, Technological Efficiency, and Ecosystems Impact Ratings for the Sustainability of China’s Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Alexey Bilgaev & Suocheng Dong & Fujia Li & Hao Cheng & Arnold Tulohonov & Erzhena Sadykova & Anna Mikheeva, 2020. "Baikal Region (Russia) Development Prospects Based on the Green Economy Principles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Jialei Jiang & Eun-Mi Park & Seong-Taek Park, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability—A Case Study of Fluctuation in Stock Prices for China and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Ma, Qiang & Zhang, Mei & Ali, Sher & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Khan, Zeeshan, 2021. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility and economic performance: Evidence from China pre and post COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Klona, Maria, 2021. "The Days After COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Epidemics and Pandemics on Long-Term Macro-Economic Performance," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 188-224, May.
    6. Michela Piccarozzi & Cecilia Silvestri & Patrizio Morganti, 2021. "COVID-19 in Management Studies: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-28, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Margaret Chitiga‐Mabugu & Martin Henseler & Ramos Mabugu & Hélène Maisonnave, 2021. "Economic and Distributional Impact of COVID‐19: Evidence from Macro‐Micro Modelling of the South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(1), pages 82-94, March.
    2. Victoria Y. Fan & Dean T. Jamison & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk," NBER Working Papers 22137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Huan Wang & Sarah‐Eve Dill & Huan Zhou & Yue Ma & Hao Xue & Sean Sylvia & Kumi Smith & Matthew Boswell & Alexis Medina & Prashant Loyalka & Cody Abby & Dimitris Friesen & Nathan Rose & Yian Guo & Scot, 2021. "Health, economic, and social implications of COVID‐19 for China's rural population," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 495-504, May.
    4. Fan, Victoria Y & Jamison, Dean T & Summers, Lawrence H, 2018. "Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?," Scholarly Articles 35014363, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    5. Olli-Pekka Hilmola & Oskari Lähdeaho & Ville Henttu & Per Hilletofth, 2020. "Covid-19 Pandemic: Early Implications for North European Manufacturing and Logistics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-13, October.
    6. Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2020. "Measuring the Economic Risk of COVID‐19," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(4), pages 413-423, September.
    7. Shawn Arita & Jason Grant & Sharon Sydow & Jayson Beckman, 2021. "Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient under COVID-19? Findings from an Econometric Assessment of 2020," NBER Chapters, in: Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Amos Z. B. Flomo & Elissaios Papyrakis & Natascha Wagner, 2023. "Evaluating the economic effects of the Ebola virus disease in Liberia: A synthetic control approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1478-1504, August.
    9. Klona, Maria, 2021. "The Days After COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Epidemics and Pandemics on Long-Term Macro-Economic Performance," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 188-224, May.
    10. Yipeng Liu & Jong Min Lee & Celia Lee, 2020. "The challenges and opportunities of a global health crisis: the management and business implications of COVID-19 from an Asian perspective," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(3), pages 277-297, July.
    11. Maliszewska,Maryla & Mattoo,Aaditya & Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique, 2020. "The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade : A Preliminary Assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9211, The World Bank.
    12. Minjung Lee & Myoungsoon You, 2020. "Psychological and Behavioral Responses in South Korea During the Early Stages of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-14, April.
    13. Catherine Z. Worsnop, 2017. "Domestic politics and the WHO’s International Health Regulations: Explaining the use of trade and travel barriers during disease outbreaks," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 365-395, September.
    14. Akhilesh K. Sharma, 2022. "Implications of Policy Initiatives for MSMES amid Economic Disruptions Caused by COVID-19," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 47(1), pages 7-18, March.
    15. Nguyen Doan & Canh Phuc Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of a Pandemic: What Happened after SARS in 2003?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8687, CESifo.
    16. Arita, Shawn & Grant, Jason & Sydow, Sharon & Beckman, Jayson, 2021. "Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient Under COVID-19? Lessons from an Econometric Assessment," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315888, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Mukit Mohammad Mushfiqul Haque & Nabila Nusrat Jahan & Abdel-Razzaq Assim Ibrahim & Shaznin Kazi Fatema, 2021. "The Economic Influence on Consumers Buying Behavior in Islamic Countries: Evidence from the COVID-19 Economic Crisis," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 179-203, June.
    18. Kelley Lee, 2014. "Health Policy in Asia and the Pacific: Navigating Local Needs and Global Challenges," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 45-57, January.
    19. George N Chidimbah Munthali & Wu Xuelian & Wu Xuelian, 2020. "The Future of Tobacco Industry Amidst of COVID-19 -A Case of Malawi Producing Country," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 27(5), pages 21104-21109, May.
    20. Shuangjin Li & Shuang Ma & Junyi Zhang, 2023. "Building a system dynamics model to analyze scenarios of COVID-19 policymaking in tourism-dependent developing countries: A case study of Cambodia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(2), pages 488-512, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    coronavirus disease (COVID-19); strategies; forecasting; sustainable development; post-coronavirus scenarios; SARIMA; input-output analysis; development programmes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O39 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:14:y:2020:i:2:p:7-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nataliya Gavrilicheva or Mikhail Salazkin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hsecoru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.