A conditionally heteroskedastic model with time-varying coefficients for daily gas spot prices
AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between gas spot prices at the Zeebrugge market, one-month ahead Brent prices and temperatures over the period 2000–2005. A cointegration analysis is carried out and it is discovered that a cointegration relationship exists between the three series. To take into account the influence of temperature on the gas volatility, a GARCH(1,1) model with temperature-dependent coefficients is considered. Stability and estimation properties are discussed. An empirical finding is the existence of distinct volatility regimes for the volatility of gas prices, depending on the temperature level.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
GARCH; Gas prices; Nonstationary models; Periodic models; Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation; Time-varying coefficients;
Other versions of this item:
- Zakoïan, Jean-Michel & Regnard, Nazim, 2011. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Model with Time-varying Coefficients for Daily Gas Spot Prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/2603, Paris Dauphine University.
- Regnard, Nazim & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2010. "A conditionally heteroskedastic model with time-varying coefficients for daily gas spot prices," MPRA Paper 22642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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