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Term Premia and the Maturity Composition of the Federal Debt: New Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Bekdache, Basma

Abstract

This paper models bond term premia empirically in terms of the maturity composition of the federal debt and other observable economic variables in a time-varying framework with potential regime shifts. We present regression and out-of sample forecasting results demonstrating that information on the age composition of the Federal debt is useful for forecasting term premia. We show that the multiprocess mixture model, a multi-state time-varying parameter model, outperforms the commonly used GARCH model in out-of-sample forecasts of term premia. The results underscore the importance of modelling term premia, as a function of economic variables rather than just as a function of asset covariances as in the conditional heteroscedasticity models. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Bekdache, Basma, 2001. "Term Premia and the Maturity Composition of the Federal Debt: New Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 519-539, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:7:p:519-39
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    1. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2011. "Time-variation in term premia: International survey-based evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 605-622, June.
    2. Wolff, Christian & Verschoor, Willem F C & Jongen, Ron, 2005. "Time Variation in Term Premia: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 4959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Thomas C. Chiang, 2017. "Surprises, sentiments, and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 1-28, July.
    4. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Kuo, I-Doun & Chiang, Thomas C., 2014. "What explains deviations in the unbiased expectations hypothesis? Market irrationality vs. the peso problem," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 172-190.
    5. Osmani Teixeira De Carvalho Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2009. "Characterising the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114.

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