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Modelling Regime Switching and Structural Breaks with an Infinite Hidden Markov Model

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  • Yong Song

    (University of Technology, Sydney, Australia; RCEA, Italy)

Abstract

This paper proposes an infinite hidden Markov model to integrate the regime switching and the structural break dynamics in a single, coherent Bayesian framework. Two parallel hierarchical structures, one governing the transition probabilities and another governing the parameters of the conditional data density, keep the model parsimonious and improve forecasts. This flexible approach allows for regime persistence and estimates the number of states automatically. A global identification methodology for structural changes versus regime switching is presented. An application to U.S. real interest rates compares the new model to existing parametric alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Song, 2012. "Modelling Regime Switching and Structural Breaks with an Infinite Hidden Markov Model," Working Paper series 28_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:28_12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching; structural break; Dirichlet process; infinite hidden Markov model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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