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Stock Prices and Economic Fluctuations: A Markov Switching Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

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  • Markku Lanne
  • Helmut Luetkepohl

Abstract

The role of expectations for economic fluctuations has received considerable attention in recent business cycle analysis. We exploit Markov regime switching models to identify shocks in cointegrated structural vector autoregressions and investigate different identification schemes for bivariate systems comprising U.S. stock prices and total factor productivity. The former variable is viewed as re°ecting expectations of economic agents about future productivity. It is found that some previously used identification schemes can be rejected in our model setup. The results crucially depend on the measure used for total factor productivity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2008/29.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2008/29

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Keywords: Cointegration; Markov regime switching model; vector error correction model; structural vector autoregression; mixed normal distribution;

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  1. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The 'News' View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," IDEI Working Papers 158, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lucke, Bernd & Haertel, Thomas, 2008. "Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(10), pages 1-21.
  6. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2005. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Nonnormal Residuals," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/25, European University Institute.
  7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  8. Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Yukai Yang, 2014. "Testing Constancy of the Error Covariance Matrix in Vector Models against Parametric Alternatives using a Spectral Decomposition," CREATES Research Papers 2014-11, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.

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