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On the Non-Optimality of Information: An Analysis of the Welfare Effects of Anticipated Shocks in the New Keynesian Model

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  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner
  • Winkler, Roland C.

Abstract

This paper compares the welfare effects of anticipated and unanticipated cost-push shocks in the canonical New Keynesian model with optimal monetary policy. We find that, for empirically plausible degrees of nominal rigidity, the anticipation of a future cost-push shock leads to a higher welfare loss than an unanticipated shock. A welfare gain from the anticipation of a future cost shock may only occur if prices are sufficiently flexible. We analytically show that this surprising result holds although unanticipated shocks lead to higher negative impact effects on welfare than anticipated shocks. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2008,21.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:7469

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Keywords: Anticipated Shocks; Optimal Monetary Policy; Sticky Prices; Welfare Analysis;

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Cited by:
  1. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2009. "Rational expectations models with anticipated shocks and optimal policy: a general solution method and a new Keynesian example," Economics Working Papers 2009,01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  2. Kapinos, Pavel, 2011. "Forward-looking monetary policy and anticipated shocks to inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 620-633.

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