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Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles

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Author Info

  • Paul Beaudry

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Martial Dupaigne

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

  • Franck Portier

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper reexamines the question of how to explain business cycle co-movements within and between countries. First, we present a simple flexible price models to illustrate how and why news shocks can generate robust positive co-movements in economic activity across countries. We also discuss under what conditions a two-sector version of the model generates appropriate business cycle patterns within countries. Second, we develop a quantitative two-country two-sector model that is capable of replicating news driven international business cycles. The model is a two-country extension of the closed economy model of Beaudry & Portier [2004], in which there are limited possibilities to reallocate factors between investment and consumption good sectors. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2010.11.002
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 72-91

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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:09-245

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Related research

Keywords: Business cycles; Expectations; International fluctuations; News shocks;

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References

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  1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2004. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Discussion Papers 07-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  3. Haertel, Thomas & Lucke, Bernd, 2007. "New Evidence on News-Driven Business Cycles," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-27, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2004. "International business cycles: What are the facts?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 257-276, March.
  5. Robert Barsky, 2010. "News Shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 95, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
  7. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The 'News' View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Wen, Yi, 2007. "By force of demand: Explaining international comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, January.
  9. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
  10. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard, 2006. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," 2006 Meeting Papers 8, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "When Can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations in Neo-Classical Settings?," NBER Working Papers 10776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  13. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
  14. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2009. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Working Papers 14950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier & Paul Beaudry, 2007. "The International Propagation of News Shocks," 2007 Meeting Papers 251, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2013. "News Shocks, Real Exchange Rates and International Co-Movements," BCL working papers 83, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  2. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2013. "Fear of Sovereign Default, Banks, and Expectations-Driven Business Cycles," Carleton Economic Papers 13-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  3. Tony Hall & Jan Jacobs & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Macro-Econometric System Modelling @75," CAMA Working Papers 2013-67, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. William Dupor & M. Saif Mehkari, 2013. "The analytics of technology news shocks," Working Papers 2013-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 19411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Manuel Portugal Ferreira & Nuno Rosa Reis & Fernando Ribeiro Serra & Benny Kramer Costa, 2013. "Understanding the footprint of the RBV in International Business studies: The last twenty years of research," Working Papers 96, globADVANTAGE, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria.
  7. Gunes Kamber & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Christoph Thoenissen, 2014. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," CAMA Working Papers 2014-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Manuel Portugal Ferreira & Fernando A. Ribeiro Serra & Benny Kramer Costa, 2011. "The RBV in International Business Studies: A bibliometric study of Barney?s (1991) contribution to the field," Working Papers 82, globADVANTAGE, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria.
  9. Blake, Andrew P., 2012. "Equally shocking news," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 866-869.

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