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Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles

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  • Beaudry, Paul
  • Dupaigne, Martial
  • Portier, Franck

Abstract

This paper reexamines the question of how to explain business cycle co-movements within and between countries. First, we present two simple theoretically flexible price models to illustrate how and why news shocks can generate robust positive co-movements in economic activity across countries. We also discuss under what conditions the multi-sector version of the model generates appropriate business cycle patterns within countries. Second, we develop a quantitative two-country multi-sector model that is capable of replicating many international business cycle facts. The model is a two-country extension of the closed economy model of Beaudry and Portier [2004], in which there are limited possibilities to reallocate factors between investment and consumption good sectors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) in its series TSE Working Papers with number 09-117.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:22242

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Keywords: business cycles; expectations; international fluctuations;

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References

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  1. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1699-1711, December.
  2. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
  4. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "When Can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations in Neo-Classical Settings?," IDEI Working Papers 304, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  5. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2009. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Working Papers 14950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The 'News' View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Wen, Yi, 2007. "By force of demand: Explaining international comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, January.
  8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  10. Ambler, S. & Cardia, E. & Zimmermann, C., 2000. "International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-05, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  11. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier & Paul Beaudry, 2007. "The International Propagation of News Shocks," 2007 Meeting Papers 251, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice & Portier, Franck, 2011. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 84-97, March.
  14. Haertel, Thomas & Lucke, Bernd, 2007. "New Evidence on News-Driven Business Cycles," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-27, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  15. Den Haan, Wouter & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2007. "Anticipated Growth and Business Cycles in Matching Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6063, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2013. "Fear of Sovereign Default, Banks, and Expectations-driven Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-08, McMaster University.
  2. Tony Hall & Jan Jacobs & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Macro-Econometric System Modelling @75," CAMA Working Papers 2013-67, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Gunes Kamber & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Christoph Thoenissen, 2014. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," CAMA Working Papers 2014-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. William Dupor & M. Saif Mehkari, 2013. "The analytics of technology news shocks," Working Papers 2013-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Blake, Andrew P., 2012. "Equally shocking news," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 866-869.
  6. Manuel Portugal Ferreira & Fernando A. Ribeiro Serra & Benny Kramer Costa, 2011. "The RBV in International Business Studies: A bibliometric study of Barney?s (1991) contribution to the field," Working Papers 82, globADVANTAGE, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria.
  7. Manuel Portugal Ferreira & Nuno Rosa Reis & Fernando Ribeiro Serra & Benny Kramer Costa, 2013. "Understanding the footprint of the RBV in International Business studies: The last twenty years of research," Working Papers 96, globADVANTAGE, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria.
  8. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 19411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2013. "News Shocks, Real Exchange Rates and International Co-Movements," BCL working papers 83, Central Bank of Luxembourg.

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