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Firm Dynamics in News Driven Business Cycle: The Role of Endogenous Survival Rate

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  • Xu, Zhiwei
  • Fan, Haichao

Abstract

Our structural VAR shows that the new business formation in U.S. data has similar positive co-movement pattern as common aggregate variables in response to a favorable anticipated shock about technology. However, incorporating �firm dynamics into Jaimovich and Rebelo's (Jaimovich and Rebelo, 2009, American Economic Review) model cannot explain our empirical fi�nding. Even worse, the model predicts an aggregate recession instead of a boom. Then, we show that this problem can be resolved with a minor modification by introducing endogenous survival rate of the new entrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Zhiwei & Fan, Haichao, 2010. "Firm Dynamics in News Driven Business Cycle: The Role of Endogenous Survival Rate," MPRA Paper 30203, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-245, September.
    2. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
    3. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, June.
    4. David Audretsch & Patrick Houweling & A. Thurik, 2000. "Firm Survival in the Netherlands," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, February.
    5. Christopher Gunn & Alok Johri, 2011. "News and knowledge capital," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 92-101, January.
    6. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    7. Karnizova, Lilia, 2010. "The spirit of capitalism and expectation-driven business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 739-752, September.
    8. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    9. Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice & Portier, Franck, 2011. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 84-97, March.
    10. Jaimovich, Nir, 2007. "Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 300-325, November.
    11. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
    12. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
    13. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    15. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    16. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo & Ilut, Cosmin, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Fan, Haichao & Gao, Xiang & Xu, Juanyi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2016. "News shock, firm dynamics and business cycles: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-180.
    3. Pavlov, Oscar, 2016. "Can firm entry explain news-driven fluctuations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 427-434.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm Dynamics; Aggregate Co-movement; Expectation Driven Business Cycle; News Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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