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Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation

Author

Listed:
  • Bertrand Candelon
  • Elena Ivona Dumitrescu

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christophe Hurlin
  • Franz Palm

Abstract

In this paper we propose a multivariate dynamic probit model. Our model can be considered as a non-linear VAR model for the latent variables associated with correlated binary time-series data. To estimate it, we implement an exact maximum-likelihood approach, hence providing a solution to the problem generally encountered in the formulation of multivariate probit models. Our framework allows us to apprehend dynamics and causality in several ways. Furthermore, we propose an impulse-response analysis for such models. An empirical application on three nancial crises is nally proposed.
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Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Candelon & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin & Franz Palm, 2013. "Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation," Post-Print hal-01449943, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01449943
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    as
    1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
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    3. Candelon, Bertrand & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2014. "Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1016-1029.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Barrera, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993 - 2012," Working Papers 2014-024, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    4. Carsten Jentsch & Lena Reichmann, 2022. "Generalized binary vector autoregressive processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 285-311, March.
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    6. Maixé-Altés, J. Carles & Iglesias, Emma M., 2015. "Banking, Currency, Stock Market and Debt Crises: Revisiting Reinhart & Rogoff Debt Analysis in Spain, 1850-1995," MPRA Paper 68199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.

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    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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