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Taxing choices in deficit reduction

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Author Info

  • Baffes, John
  • Shah, Anwar

Abstract

This paper attempts to: (a) determine whether governments have continuously attempted to align revenues or spending to control the deficit; (b) test for causality between taxes and spending; and (c) quantify the causality effects by; (i) estimating an error correction model, and (ii) calculating variance decompositions and impulse responses. The tests were carried out for the countries of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Pakistan. The results can be summarized as follows: The governments of Brazil, Mexico, and Pakistan seem to have successfully aligned revenues and spending as means of controlling the deficit over the time period examined, while a similar deduction for Argentina and Chile could not be made. For Brazil, Mexico, and Pakistan, strong instantaneous causality runs both directions. In Argentina and Chile, deficit was found to cause and be caused by expenditures. Impulse responses for Mexico and Brazil were found to have short-run effects only, while for Pakistan the effects were more persistent. In terms of variance decompositions it was found that variations in both revenues and spending are explained in most part by past spending. The above results suggest that to control the deficit, Brazil, Mexico, and Pakistan should attempt to raise revenues and curtail expenditures simultaneously, while Argentina and Chile should control public expenditures as a first priority.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 556.

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Date of creation: 31 Dec 1990
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:556

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Related research

Keywords: Public Sector Economics&Finance; Environmental Economics&Policies; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; Urban Economics; Public&Municipal Finance;

References

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  1. Ambler, Steve, 1989. "Does Money Matter in Canada? Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 651-58, November.
  2. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
  3. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-12, August.
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  5. von Furstenberg, George M & Green, R Jeffrey & Jeong, Jin-Ho, 1986. "Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 179-88, May.
  6. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ahsan, Syed M & Kwan, Andy C C & Sahni, Balbir S, 1989. "Causality between Government Consumption Expenditure and National Income: OECD Countries," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 44(2), pages 204-24.
  9. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Whitney K. Newey & Harvey S. Rosen, 1987. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," NBER Working Papers 2180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Kiguel, Miguel A. & Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1989. "Inflation and seigniorage in Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 289, The World Bank.
  11. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  13. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  14. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
  15. Ram, Rati, 1988. "A Multicountry Perspective on Causality between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 43(2), pages 261-70.
  16. Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-39, August.
  17. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Hasan, Syed Akif & Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2011. "An investigation of granger causality between tax revenues and government expenditures," MPRA Paper 35686, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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