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The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE

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  • TOBIAS S. BLATTNER
  • MICHAEL A. S. JOYCE

Abstract

This paper examines how shocks to government bond duration risk held by price‐sensitive investors affect the euro area term structure of interest rates and the wider macroeconomy. We construct a new measure of the bond “free float,” which adjusts total debt for foreign official holdings and weights by residual maturity. Using a small macrofinance Bayesian Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate that the first round of asset purchases under the European Central Bank's (ECB) public sector purchase program reduced euro area 10‐year bond yields by around 30 bps in 2015. The positive impact on the output gap and inflation in 2016 was about 0.2 and 0.3 ppt, respectively.

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  • Tobias S. Blattner & Michael A. S. Joyce, 2020. "The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1361-1395, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:52:y:2020:i:6:p:1361-1395
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12685
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    Cited by:

    1. Gergely Hudecz & Elisabetta Vangelista & Robert Blotevogel, 2022. "Asset purchases and sovereign risk premia in the euro area during the pandemic," Working Papers 55, European Stability Mechanism, revised 12 Sep 2022.
    2. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    3. Froemel, Maren & Joyce, Michael & Kaminska, Iryna, 2022. "The local supply channel of QE: evidence from the Bank of England’s gilt purchases," Bank of England working papers 980, Bank of England.

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