Are the Nordic Stock Markets Mean Reverting?
AbstractIn this paper we test for mean reversion in the Nordic stock markets using monthly nominal data 1947-1998. By simply account for the heteroscedasticity of the data with a regime-switching model of normal distributions and taking estimation bias into account via a Bayesian approach we can find no support of mean reversion. This is a contradiction to some previous result from Denmark and Sweden. Our findings suggest that mixtures of two regimes can characterize the each stock market and within the regimes the stock market is random. This finding of randomness is in line with recent evidence in literature.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2001:15.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 30 Aug 2001
Date of revision:
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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
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market efficiency; variance ratio; Gibbs sampling; hidden Markov chains; MCMC;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-09-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2001-09-26 (European Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2001-09-26 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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