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Average Crossing Time: An Alternative Characterization of Mean Aversion and Reversion

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  • John B. Donaldson
  • Rajnish Mehra

Abstract

We evaluate the properties of mean reversion and mean aversion in asset prices and returns as commonly characterized in the finance literature. The study is undertaken within a class of well-known dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and shows that the mean reversion/aversion distinction is largely artificial. We then propose an alternative measure, the ‘Average Crossing Time’ that both unifies these concepts and provides an alternative characterization. Ceteris paribus, mean reverting processes have a relatively shorter average crossing time as compared to mean averting processes.

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  • John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2019. "Average Crossing Time: An Alternative Characterization of Mean Aversion and Reversion," NBER Working Papers 25519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25519
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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