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A parsimonious macroeconomic model for asset pricing

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Fatih Guvenen

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Abstract

I study asset prices in a two-agent macroeconomic model with two key features: limited stock market participation and heterogeneity in the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (EIS). The model is consistent with some prominent features of asset prices, such as a high equity premium; relatively smooth interest rates; procyclical stock prices; and countercyclical variation in the equity premium, its volatility, and in the Sharpe ratio. In this model, the risk-free asset market plays a central role by allowing non-stockholders (with low EIS) to smooth the fluctuations in their labor income. This process concentrates non-stockholders' labor income risk among a small group of stockholders, who then demand a high premium for bearing the aggregate equity risk. Furthermore, this mechanism is consistent with the very small share of aggregate wealth held by non-stockholders in the US data, which has proved problematic for previous models with limited participation. I show that this large wealth inequality is also important for the model's ability to generate a countercyclical equity premium. When it comes to business cycle performance the model's progress has been more limited: consumption is still too volatile compared to the data, whereas investment is still too smooth. These are important areas for potential improvement in this framework.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 434.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:434

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Keywords: Wealth ; Stock market;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. David Domeij & Martin Floden, 2006. "The Labor-Supply Elasticity and Borrowing Constraints: Why Estimates are Biased," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 242-262, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Orazio P. Attanasio & James Banks & Sarah Tanner, 2002. "Asset Holding and Consumption Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 771-792, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Basak, Suleyman & Cuoco, Domenico, 1998. "An Equilibrium Model with Restricted Stock Market Participation," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 309-41.
  5. Robert B. Barsky & Miles S. Kimball & F. Thomas Juster & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Survey," NBER Working Papers 5213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Yeung Lewis Chan & Leonid Kogan, 2002. "Catching Up with the Joneses: Heterogeneous Preferences and the Dynamics of Asset Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1255-1285, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Claudio Campanale & Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi, . "Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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  13. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Guvenen, Fatih, 2006. "Reconciling conflicting evidence on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: A macroeconomic perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1451-1472, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Martin Browning & Thomas F. Crossley, 2000. "Luxuries Are Easier to Postpone: A Proof," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 1022-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Limited Risk Sharing and Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 415-448, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Epstein, Larry G., 1988. "Risk aversion and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 179-192, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Martin Lettau & Harald Uhlig, 2000. "Can Habit Formation be Reconciled with Business Cycle Facts?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 79-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2007. "Asset Pricing with Idiosyncratic Risk and Overlapping Generations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 519-548, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. YACINE AÏT-SAHALIA & JONATHAN A. PARKER & MOTOHIRO YOGO, 2004. "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2959-3004, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dumas, Bernard J & Lyasoff, Andrew, 2009. "Incomplete-Market Equilibria Solved Recursively on an Event Tree," CEPR Discussion Papers 7138, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lars Ljungqvist & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "Optimal Endowment Destruction under Campbell-Cochrane Habit Formation," NBER Working Papers 14772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Claudio Campanale & Gian Luca Clementi & Rui Castro, 2008. "Asset Pricing in a General Equilibrium Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Risk Preferences," Working Papers. Serie AD 2008-14, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  4. Bernard Dumas & Andrew Lyasoff, 2008. "Incomplete-Market Equilibria Solved Recursively on an Event Tree," NBER Working Papers 14629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Claudio Campanale & Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi, . "Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Eva Carceles-Poveda, 2009. "Asset Prices and Business Cycles under Market Incompleteness," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 405-422, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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