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Equity Returns and Business Cycles in Small Open Economies

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  • Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R.
  • Liu, Xuan
  • Rothman, Philip

Abstract

This is the first paper in the literature to match key business cycle moments and long-run equity returns in a small open economy with production. These results are achieved by introducing three modications to a standard real business cycle model: (1) borrowing and lending costs are imposed to increase the volatility of the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution; (2) investment adjustment costs are assumed to make equity returns more volatile; and (3) GHH preferences are employed to smooth consumption. We also decompose the contributions of productivity, the world interest rate, and government expenditure shocks to the equity premium. Our results are based on data from Argentina, Brazil, and Chile.

Suggested Citation

  • Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Liu, Xuan & Rothman, Philip, 2009. "Equity Returns and Business Cycles in Small Open Economies," MPRA Paper 15915, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15915
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    3. Giuliano Curatola & Michael Donadelli & Patrick Grüning, 2022. "Technology trade with asymmetric tax regimes and heterogeneous labour markets: Implications for macro quantities and asset prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3805-3831, October.
    4. Curatola, Giuliano & Donadelli, Michael & Grüning, Patrick, 2015. "Matching the BRIC equity premium: A structural approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 65-75.
    5. Min Bai & Samir Harith, 2023. "Measuring SMEs Risk – Evidence from Malaysia," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-32, July.
    6. Liu, Xuan, 2007. "Trade Openness and the Cost of Sudden Stops: The Role of Financial Friction," MPRA Paper 18260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2009.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Donadelli, Michael & Varani, Alessia, 2015. "International capital markets structure, preferences and puzzles: A “US–China World”," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 85-99.
    8. Zhongyuan Geng & Xuan Liu, 2019. "Optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(20), pages 2155-2171, April.
    9. Horvath, Jaroslav, 2018. "Business cycles, informal economy, and interest rates in emerging countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-116.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Equity Returns; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model; Real Business Cycle; Small Open Economy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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