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The Bad Government: A Source of Uncertainty and Business Fluctuations

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  • Taiji Harashima

    (The Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government)

Abstract

Uncertainty represented by volatilities in equity markets has been observed to be time-variable and lead output fluctuations. In the rational expectation framework, uncertainty with this nature needs exogenous variables with time-varying volatilities, but technology, tastes and fiscal and monetary policies do not seem suitable for such variables. The paper contends that supervisions and law enforcement that reduce cheatings in contracts is one of the ultimate sources of uncertainty. The cheating plays an important role for uncertainty since it is the origin of noisy price observations that makes an economy uncertain in the framework of rational expectation approximate equilibria.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Microeconomics with number 0407010.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 23 Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:0407010

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 39
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Uncertainty; Rational expectation approximate equilibria; Imperfect commitment; Supervision; Business fluctuations;

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  1. Grossman, Sanford J, 1981. "An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectations under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 541-59, October.
  2. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 1999. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 1999.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. George A. Akerlof & Paul M. Romer, 1993. "Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 1-74.
  4. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
  5. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Campbell, John Y & Kim, Sangjoon & Lettau, Martin, 1998. "Dispersion and Volatility in Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
  8. Bester, Helmut & Strausz, Roland, 2001. "Contracting with Imperfect Commitment and the Revelation Principle: The Single Agent Case," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 1077-98, July.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Prudential Supervision: Why Is It Important and What are the Issues?," NBER Working Papers 7926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Michael Francis, 2003. "Governance and Financial Fragility: Evidence from a Cross-Section of Countries," Working Papers 03-34, Bank of Canada.
  11. Michael Hutchison, 1997. "Financial crises and bank supervision: new directions for Japan?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec12.
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