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Semiparametric Efficient Estimation of the Mean of a Time Series in the Presence of Conditional Heterogeneity of Unknown Form

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Author Info
Douglas Hodgson (Center for Research on Economic Fluctuations and Employment, UQAM)

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Abstract

We obtain semiparametric efficiency bounds for the estimation of a location parameter in a time series model where the innovations are stationary and ergodic, conditionally symmetric martingale differences but otherwise possess general dependence and distributions of unknown form. We then describe an iterative estimator that achieves this bound when the conditional density functions of the sample are known. Finally, we develop a 'semi-adaptive' estimator that achieves the bound when these densities are unknown by the investigator. This estimator employs nonparametric kernel estimates of the densities. Monte Carlo results are reported.

Nous dérivons une borne d'efficacité semi-paramétrique pour un estimateur de la moyenne d'une série temporelle dans un contexte où les innovations sont stationnaires et ergodiques. Nous supposons que les innovations suivent de façon conditionelle une différence de martingale symétrique tout en permettant une forme générale de dépendence temporelle et un loi de forme inconnue. Un estimateur «semi-adaptif» atteignant cette borne est proposé dans le cas où le fonction de densité est inconnue. Cet estimateur utilise une estimation non-paramétrique à noyau de la fonction de densité. Enfin, une étude de Monte-Carlo est présentée.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 146.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:146

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Related research
Keywords: Time series; semiparametric efficiency; conditional heteroskedasticity; adaptive estimation.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Douglas Hodgson, 2000. "Unconditional pseudo-maximum likelihood and adaptive estimation in the presence of conditional heterogeneity of unknown form," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 175-206. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Linton, Oliver, 1993. "Adaptive Estimation in ARCH Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 539-569, August. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kuersteiner, Guido M., 2002. "Efficient Iv Estimation For Autoregressive Models With Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 547-583, June. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hodgson, D.J., 1995. "Adaptive Estimation of Error Correlation Models," RCER Working Papers 410, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Hodgson, Douglas J., 1998. "Adaptive Estimation Of Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 44-69, February. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. White, Halbert & Domowitz, Ian, 1984. "Nonlinear Regression with Dependent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 143-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Steigerwald, Douglas G., 1992. "Adaptive estimation in time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 251-275. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Newey, Whitney K, 1990. "Semiparametric Efficiency Bounds," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 99-135, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jeganathan, P., 1995. "Some Aspects of Asymptotic Theory with Applications to Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 818-887, October. [Downloadable!]
  12. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:818-87 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Gallant, Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1989. "Seminonparametric Estimation of Conditionally Constrained Heterogeneous Processes: Asset Pricing Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1091-1120, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-59, October.
    Other versions:
  15. Drost, F.C. & Klaasens, C.A.J. & Werker, B.J.M., 1994. "Adaptive Estimation in Time Series Models," Papers 9488, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  16. repec:cup:etheor:v:9:y:1993:i:4:p:539-69 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Charles Manski, 1984. "Adaptive estimation of non-linear regression models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 145-194. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hodgson, Douglas J., 1998. "Adaptive estimation of cointegrating regressions with ARMA errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 231-267, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Hodgson, Douglas J, 1999. "Adaptive Estimation of Cointegrated Models: Simulation Evidence and an Application to the Forward Exchange Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 627-50, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!]
  20. Drost, Feike C. & Klaassen, Chris A. J., 1997. "Efficient estimation in semiparametric GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 193-221, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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