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Historical Interest Rate Sensitivity of Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: Evidence of Regime Dependent Behavior

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  • Mariya Gubareva

Abstract

Interest rate sensitivity of USD-denominated emerging market sovereign debt over 1997-2017 is studied through comparative price dynamics of emerging market sovereign bonds versus US governmental securities. The proposed methodology derives important insights for practical strategies of managing interest rate risk in the banking book. We find that the direct positive interest rate sensitivity under normal economic conditions is interchanged with the inverted negative sensitivity during distressed crisis-affected market turbulences. Due to the time-varying behavior of interest rate sensitivity, the hedging of interest rate risk must be a dynamic process linked to phases of the business cycle.

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  • Mariya Gubareva, 2018. "Historical Interest Rate Sensitivity of Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: Evidence of Regime Dependent Behavior," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 405-442, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2018:v:19:i:2:gubareva
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    1. Mariya Gubareva & Benjamin Keddad, 2022. "Emerging markets financial sector debt: A Markov‐switching study of interest rate sensitivity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3851-3863, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fixed Income; Portfolio Performance Evaluation; Downside Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Sovereign Debt; Interest Rate Sensitivity; Capital Gains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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