A Structural Balance Sheet Model of Sovereign Credit Risk
AbstractThis article studies sovereign credit spreads using a contingent claims model and a balance sheet representation of the sovereign economy. Analytical formulae for domestic and external debt values as well as for the financial guarantee are derived in a framework where recovery rate is endogenously determined as the solution of a strategic bargaining game. The approach allows to relate sovereign credit spreads to observable macroeconomic factors, and in particular accounts for contagion effects through the corporate and banking sectors. Pricing performance as well as predictions about credit spread determinants are successfully tested on the Brazilian economy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 1141.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Sovereign credit spread; Balance sheet; Recovery rate; Contingent claims analysis; Contagion effects;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-03 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hayri, A., 1996.
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
459, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010.
"Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt,"
Review of Finance,
European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
- Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2007. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 114, Money Macro and Finance Research Group, revised 24 Apr 2007.
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