GARCH-based Volatility Forecasts for Market Volatility Indices
AbstractVolatility forecasting is one of the main issues in the financial econometrics literature. Volatility measures may be derived from statistical models for conditional variance, or from option prices. In recent times, indices have been suggested which summarize the implied volatility of widely traded market index options. One such index is the so-called VXN, an average of 30-day ahead implied volatilities of the options written on the NASDAQ-100 Index. In this paper we show how forecasts obtained with traditional GARCH-type models can be used to forecast the volatility index VXN.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti" in its series Econometrics Working Papers Archive with number wp2002_06.
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 27 Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Volatility modelling; Volatility forecasting; GARCH models; VXN; Implied volatility.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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