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Power ARCH modelling of commodity futures data on the London Metal Exchange

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Author Info
Michael D. McKenzie, Heather Mitchell, Robert D. Brooks, Robert W. Faff

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Abstract

A recent addition to the ARCH family of econometric models was introduced by Ding and co-workers wherein the power term by which the data is transformed was estimated within the model rather than being imposed by the researcher. This paper considers the ability of the Power GARCH class of models to capture the stylized features of volatility in a range of commodity futures prices traded on the London Metals Exchange (LME). The results of this procedure suggest that asymmetric effects are not generally present in the LME futures data. Further, unlike stock market data which is well described by the model, futures data is not as well described by the APGARCH model. Nested within the APGARCH model are several other models from the ARCH family. This paper uses the standard log likelihood procedure to conduct pairwise comparisons of the relative merits of each and the results suggest that it is the Taylor GARCH model which performs best.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 7 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 22-38
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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:7:y:2001:i:1:p:22-38

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Related research
Keywords: Power Arch London Metal Exchange Futures;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Zhuanxin Ding & Clive W.J. Granger, 1994. "Modeling Volatility Persistence of Speculative Returns: A New Approach," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 94-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Other versions:
  4. Goss, Barry A, 1983. "The Semi-Strong Form Efficiency of the London Metal Exchange," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 681-98, October.
  5. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "Metals Prices, Efficiency and Cointegration: Some Evidence from the London Metal Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 235-39, June.
  6. Higgins, Matthew L & Bera, Anil K, 1992. "A Class of Nonlinear ARCH Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 137-58, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Heal, Geoffrey & Barrow, Michael, 1980. "The Relationship between Interest Rates and Metal Price Movements," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 161-81, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sephton, Peter S & Cochrane, Donald K, 1991. "The Efficiency of the London Metal Exchange: Another Look at the Evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(4A), pages 669-74, Part A, A.
  9. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hall, S G, 1991. "An Application of the Stochastic GARCH-in-Mean Model to Risk Premia in the London Metal Exchange," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(0), pages 57-71, Supplemen.
  12. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Rational Expectations, Risk and Efficiency in the London Metal Exchange: An Empirical Analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 143-53, February.
  13. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-30, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the London Metal Exchange," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(1), pages 41-52, February.
  17. Hsieh, David A & Kulatilaka, Nalin, 1982. " Rational Expectations and Risk Premia in Forward Markets: Primary Metals at the London Metals Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1199-1207, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-24, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Sephton, Peter S. & Cochrane, Donald K., 1990. "A note on the efficiency of the London metal exchange," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 341-345, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Tse, Y. K. & Tsui, Albert K. C., 1997. "Conditional volatility in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from the Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 345-356, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Currency Futures Basis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 281., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  24. Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & McKenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather, 2000. "A multi-country study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-397, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Laulajainen, Risto, 1995. "The geographical reach of a commodity exchange : The London metal exchange and beyond," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 133-141, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Goss, Barry A, 1981. "The Forward Pricing Function of the London Metal Exchange," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 133-50, June.
  28. McKenzie, Michael D, 1997. "ARCH Modelling of Australian Bilateral Exchange Rate Data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 147-64, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. K. Triantafyllopoulos, 2008. "Multivariate stochastic volatility with Bayesian dynamic linear models," Quantitative Finance Papers 0802.0214, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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